Georgia's governor race is a coin flip heading into Election Day, with Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican challenger Rick Jackson tied at 49% each in the final pre-election survey from InsiderAdvantage. The poll, which surveyed 2,500 likely Georgia voters between Saturday and Monday, found just 2% of voters still undecided in the governor's race, leaving almost no room for either campaign to find late momentum.
The same survey showed a very different picture in the state's Senate race, with Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff leading Republican challenger Mike Collins 53% to 46%, with only 1% undecided, according to Atlanta News First. The poll carried a margin of error of just under 2 percentage points, and internal figures put Bottoms and Jackson at 49.03% and 49.0%, respectively — a gap of 0.03 percentage points. As FOX 5 Atlanta reported, the survey used a mixed-mode system of text messaging and panel interviews, with responses weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.
A Pollster's Last Act After 26 Years
The numbers carry extra weight because InsiderAdvantage says this is its final public poll, closing out a 26-year polling career for the firm's co-founder and chairman, Matt Towery. Per FOX 5 Atlanta, the survey was conducted for James Magazine, which is owned by InsiderAdvantage, and the firm says it does not plan to conduct any further public polls after this one. Towery dedicated the final survey to Georgia Gang panelists Dick Williams and Tom Houck, and said he hoped the firm would not need to poll a runoff — something that could theoretically occur with write-in candidates in the mix. InsiderAdvantage has said it plans to publish top-line data tabs following the release.
The deadlock is the latest swing in a race that has moved repeatedly over the past several weeks. An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted Sept. 22-23 among 1,200 likely voters had shown Jackson leading Bottoms by two points, with Ossoff ahead of Collins by eight, according to InsiderAdvantage. That September survey also used mixed-mode text and panel interviewing weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. A subsequent October 12-13 survey of 800 likely voters, carrying a 3.46% margin of error, found Jackson maintaining a slight edge, per Middle Georgia CEO.
Affordability Dominates Closing Arguments
Both candidates have made affordability a cornerstone of their closing campaign messages, according to GPB. Bottoms has released plans to reduce grocery and gas prices and give teachers a state income tax break, the outlet reports. Jackson, for his part, has proposed reducing gas costs during price spikes and has vowed to slash income and property taxes.
The governor's race remained tight in the campaign's final days. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution called the Bottoms-Jackson contest a razor-tight showdown with one day left before Election Day, according to the AJC. NBC News, meanwhile, has pointed to split-ticket voters as a potentially decisive factor in the governor's race, given the gap between how voters appear to be treating the top of the ticket compared to the statewide contest for governor.
