The Associated Press called California's Assembly District 33 race for Democratic challenger Hipolito Cerros just before 6 p.m. Friday, and Alexandra Macedo, the Assembly's top Republican, said it appeared her campaign would fall just short while ballots were still being counted. Cerros, a 28-year-old former small-town mayor, had come from behind to take the lead in a Central Valley district Republicans have held comfortably in recent years.
“While ballots are still being counted, it now appears we will fall just short in our campaign for re-election to the state Assembly,” Macedo said in a statement, according to the Sacramento Bee. A little before 6 p.m. Friday, Cerros had 50.7% of ballots cast, per the same report. The district sits about 45 miles southeast of Fresno and includes Hanford, Corcoran and parts of Visalia.
A Lead That Kept Growing Through the Week
The race had been tightening for days before Cerros pulled ahead. According to KVPR, Cerros led by just 325 votes as of the previous results update on Tuesday evening, a cushion that later widened as counting continued. The Recorder reported that Cerros moved ahead of Macedo for the first time on Thursday, after several days of her lead steadily narrowing.
By Friday, the exact size of that lead varied depending on the source and the moment it was reported. KVPR's Friday figure put the gap at 1,512 votes, while the Sun-Gazette's sister outlet, the San Joaquin Valley Sun, reported Macedo trailing by 1,522 votes after Tulare and Fresno counties issued their latest updates. Both figures reflect snapshots during an active count rather than a certified final tally.
From Primary Front-Runner to Central Valley Upset
Cerros previously served as mayor of Lindsay, a city of about 12,600 people, before challenging Macedo, who defeated him in the June primary and was his only opponent that summer. Macedo took over as the Assembly's top Republican in August, a role she held while her own reelection bid grew increasingly precarious. Registered voters in the district lean Republican, with the GOP making up 35.64% of registration compared with 33.21% for Democrats, the Bee reported.
Macedo had cruised in 2024, winning 62.9% of ballots cast against another Republican in a district where Donald Trump took 58.1% of the vote that same year, per the Bee's reporting. That history makes Friday's reversal especially striking in a district where registered voters lean Republican.
A Boost From the Top of the Ticket
The Bee reported that Cerros was likely helped by enthusiasm surrounding Randy Villegas, a young Democrat who defeated U.S. Rep. David Valadao for California's 22nd Congressional District. Election data expert Paul Mitchell told the outlet that Villegas's district overlaps about 20% with Macedo's Assembly seat, a modest but potentially meaningful overlap in a race decided by close margins.
Part of a Broader Shift in Sacramento
The Bee characterized Macedo's apparent loss as part of what it called a disastrous legislative election for Republicans, and said Cerros's win helps expand a Democratic majority in the Assembly that could reach a level unseen since the 1850s. Reports differed on exactly how large that majority might grow: an earlier Bee count put the figure at 64 Democratic seats if results held, while KCRA reported a projection of 68 seats, either of which would exceed the modern record of 62 set in 2022. KCRA also reported that eight Republican-held Assembly seats had been lost as of its Friday update.
Whichever count eventually holds up once ballots are certified, Macedo's Central Valley seat looks set to be among those losses. For now, both the final margin in her race and the eventual size of the Assembly's Democratic majority remain unresolved as counting continues.
