A proposed half-cent sales tax increase in Palo Alto is pulling further ahead in the vote count, with Measure J now leading by 579 votes — 51.19% in favor to 48.81% opposed. The measure would raise the city's sales tax by 0.5%, generating an estimated $15.6 million a year for city coffers.
The updated tally, reported Wednesday, shows Measure J gaining strength from precincts near Cubberley Community Center, according to Palo Alto Online. The precinct nearest Cubberley posted the highest turnout in support of the measure, with about 58% of its 1,978 ballots marked yes. Measure J's fate matters beyond the tax rate itself: city leaders hope to use the new revenue to help pay for a $65.5 million purchase of seven acres of Cubberley land from the school district, plus a larger renovation of the community center there.
Cubberley’s redevelopment debate sits atop a long-running city-school-district arrangement: the campus opened as Cubberley High School in 1956, closed as a high school in 1979 and reopened as a community center in 1990. Palo Alto has operated the center under lease from the school district, which still owns much of the site. The campus hosts childcare, education, arts, recreation and other community programs, the city’s Cubberley overview says.
Support and Opposition Scattered Across the City
Measure J's strength wasn't confined to one corner of town. The Downtown North precinct also recorded 58% support, matching the Cubberley-area numbers, and the precinct covering Gunn High School and the Palo Alto Hills area came in at the same 58% yes share, per the same outlet's report.
Opposition was concentrated elsewhere. The precinct that includes Leland Manor posted the strongest resistance to the tax hike, with just 44% voting yes — the lowest support of any precinct cited. Crescent Park recorded 54% opposition, and the precinct covering nearby Palo Verde held a similar 54-46 split against the measure. A precinct just across Charleston Road from Cubberley favored the opposition by 120 votes, despite its proximity to the measure's strongest turf.
A Break From the City's Usual North-South Split
Palo Alto elections have sometimes broken down along a north-south line, with Oregon Expressway serving as the dividing boundary in prior votes. The report notes that pattern didn't hold for Measure J this time, with support and opposition scattered across precincts on both sides of that line rather than clustering predictably.
One of the more striking shifts came from the southern end of the city, which includes the Esther Clark Park neighborhood and the area around Fletcher Middle School. There, around 53% of voters opposed Measure J as of Monday — down from 60% opposed the previous week, a notable softening of resistance as more ballots came in. Most other precincts shifted by only a few dozen to a few hundred votes in either direction. One precinct covering parts of Ventura and Charleston Meadows was dead even as of Monday, with exactly 692 votes for and 692 against the measure.
Thousands of Ballots Still Uncounted
The Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters reported around 24,000 votes counted a week after election day, and the registrar has since estimated that roughly 66,000 ballots remained to be counted countywide as of Wednesday — though it remains unclear how many of those are from Palo Alto specifically. That uncertainty leaves the measure's final outcome still undetermined, even as its lead has grown with each new batch of results.
Measure J also required a change in state law before Palo Alto could seek the tax. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed SB 762 on Aug. 17, 2026, authorizing the city to seek up to a half-cent transactions-and-use tax above the existing combined local-tax cap, subject to voter approval. California’s constitution generally requires majority approval for local general taxes and two-thirds approval for special taxes. Palo Alto describes J as funding general city services, with Cubberley a council spending priority—not an exclusive legal dedication of the revenue.
Turnout in this year's City Council race offers some context for how many ballots may still be outstanding. So far, 58,000 votes have been counted in that race, compared with 95,000 total votes cast in the 2024 election and 63,000 in the 2022 midterm, suggesting additional ballots could still be on the way before the count is final.
Opposition to Measure J has been led by Jeanne Fleming alongside former Mayor Lydia Kou. In an email last week, Fleming said the opposition campaign remained hopeful the measure would ultimately fail, even as the yes side's margin has widened in the latest returns.
