Polls closed at 8 p.m. across southern Minnesota as Republican Rep. Brad Finstad sought a third full term against DFL challenger Jake Johnson, a Rochester high school math teacher, in a race that political analysts said had turned the traditionally Republican-leaning 1st Congressional District into a potential toss-up. The district stretches from the Wisconsin border to South Dakota, and both parties poured resources into the contest as results began trickling in Tuesday night.
As of late Tuesday, the race remained too early to call. An NBC News results page showed 0% of expected votes in, with an estimated 350,000 votes still remaining in House District 1, citing data from the Associated Press and projections from the NBC News Decision Desk. A New York Times election-night tracker similarly reported that no Minnesota counties had finished reporting votes at the time it was checked. Coverage from FOX 9 tracked the race as ballots continued to come in.
A District That Suddenly Looks Competitive
Finstad has represented the 1st District since 2022, when he succeeded Jim Hagedorn. He is a fourth-generation farmer from the New Ulm area who earned a degree in agriculture from the University of Minnesota, previously served as Minnesota's state director for USDA Rural Development, and now owns an agriculture business in New Ulm with his wife, Jackie. He and his extended family run their family farm, and the couple has seven children.
Johnson, by contrast, grew up in Stewartville with 10 siblings and has taught high school math for 20 years. His campaign has said he mowed lawns and relied on Pell grants to pay for college at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse. He has represented fellow teachers as a bargaining team member for his union and served on the board of the Minnesota Jump$tart Coalition, which aims to improve financial literacy for children and young adults. Johnson and his wife, Molly, a paraprofessional, have four sons.
Polling Shows a Race Too Close to Call
The district has leaned Republican for years — Cook's Partisan Voter Index rates it Republican +6, and it voted six percent more Republican than the national average in the previous two presidential elections, a tilt far short of Alabama's 4th District, the nation's most Republican seat at R+33. Yet a Democratic-sponsored poll released in the campaign's closing days showed Finstad and Johnson tied at 43% each, according to CBS News. Finstad had won the seat by 17 points in 2024, the station noted, underscoring how much the contest tightened this cycle.
The shift was significant enough that the Cook Political Report moved its rating of the district from likely Republican to leaning Republican, as reported by MPR News. Political scientist Jim Cottrill told the outlet the race was basically a toss-up. Outside groups took notice, pouring roughly $10 million into ads, canvassing and other voter outreach between the August primary and the campaign's final days, per the same report.
Farm Costs and Rural Health Care Drove the Campaign
Affordability concerns and pressure on farms helped fuel the race's unusual competitiveness. The district's heavy agricultural footprint made soaring fertilizer and diesel fuel costs especially acute for voters, MPR News reported in separate coverage. Pullbacks in Medicaid funding, which are squeezing rural hospitals and clinics, also came up repeatedly on the campaign trail, the outlet noted.
When Will Results Be Final
Minnesota's Secretary of State's office said first unofficial results were expected to trickle in by 8:30 p.m., though past elections have seen the bulk of results posted between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m., according to MinnPost. In 2024, 56 percent of the state's votes had been reported by midnight Eastern time on election night, with complete unofficial results available by the following noon, the Times reported.
Whatever numbers emerge in the coming hours and days will remain unofficial for weeks. Results for Minnesota's state and federal offices are not final until the State Canvassing Board meets to certify them on Thursday, November 19, according to the Minnesota Secretary of State.
