Arizona's job market is hitting some high notes, according to Governor Katie Hobbs. In a recent press conference, Hobbs boasted that "more Arizonans are working than at any point in state history." This claim seems to stand up under scrutiny. A dive into the numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 3.57 million Arizonians were employed as of January 2024—a historical peak for the state. However, this shiny statistic does come with the tarnish of a 4.2% unemployment rate, placing the state 40th in the nation.
Not just a fluke of numbers, the employment rate in Arizona has climbed close to the peak of a summer's zenith in 2023, with 59.6% of the population currently employed. That's a comforting thought, but it doesn't fully eclipse the state's history of high unemployment rates—a struggle that persists despite the gains. Subsequent to an almost 8% spike due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate slid to 3.8% in 2022, the lowest since 2007, only to creep up again.
While the job scene might look rosy on the surface, economists are tapping the brakes on overoptimism. Dennis L. Hoffman, a noted financial expert at ASU, points out that Arizona, like much of the global market, has felt the pinch of economic downturn. Speaking at the 60th annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, Hoffman noted that “The U.S. economy is experiencing slower growth with moderating inflation but appears on track to avoid a major recession,” Hoffman's optimism, echoed by his ASU colleague Ohad Kadan, brushes in strokes of hope for the state's direction in industries like health care and high-tech manufacturing, as reported by ASU News.
A deep-dive into industry performance proves that it's health care stealing the limelight, with over 17,600 jobs added in the past year—doubling the growth from a decade ago. Other sectors like leisure and hospitality, wholesale trade, professional/tech, and construction are adding jobs too, albeit at a varied paces. Augustine Faucher from PNC Financial Services suggests an economy in contradiction—rapid federal rate hikes and high inflation stirring public anxiety, yet small business confidence remains high, reflecting an economy that is, subjectively speaking, ripe with opportunity.
Hoffman's forecast includes a decade of growth in key industries, underscoring the belief that Arizona's appealing business climate will continue to attract and retain commercial ventures. At the end of the day, it's not just about the jobs added or the employment rates achieved; it's about sustaining a resolute economic momentum in a state that many are proud to call home—a state poised for future growth, despite the occasional bumps on the road to progress.
