The Bay Area is bracing for a spike in temperatures, as the National Weather Service Bay Area predicts a continuous warming trend that will see highs ranging from the 90s inland to the low 100s in the warmest spots. At the same time, coastal areas are expected to experience more moderate temperatures in the low to mid-60s. Not only is the heat expected to rise as we head into the weekend, but it'll maintain a steady presence into the next week as well.
Along with the climbing mercury, the NWS also warns of the possibility of monsoonal moisture arriving by Friday into Saturday, which carries a low chance for dry lightning. The heat, as stated in the Area Forecast Discussion from NWS, is poised to be such that it poses a risk for individuals who are sensitive to heat, particularly in inland East Bay and the interior Central Coast. The situation is closely monitored as the area hovers on the verge of a Heat Advisory by Saturday.
Regarding short-term effects, NWS indicates that the marine layer currently hovers at around 1,000 feet and is shallower than 24 hours ago, particularly at elevations above that mark. This translates to overnight temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than the day before for those in higher altitudes. The marine layer will compress further into the night as high pressure builds. Residents below the marine layer will see some cloud cover that could help moderate temperatures during the day, maintaining highs similar to yesterday's.
Looking ahead beyond the weekend, the NWS forecasts that temperatures will continue to hover around 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms, varying by location. The marine layer is expected to persist at coastal locales, keeping temperatures below normal. It's suggested that because mid-level instability is lacking, the Bay Area and Central Coast may see limited impacts from the incoming monsoonal moisture, with the lion's share of the effects being felt eastward towards the Central Valley and the Sierra. Keeping a vigilant eye on the situation, there's a 5% chance of dry lightning on the books from the NWS from Friday to Saturday.
Regarding aviation, travelers can anticipate widespread IFR-LIFR ceilings in the valleys during the morning, with stratus expected to break up later, as per NWS. In the afternoon, breezy conditions with onshore winds are looming, leading to gusts up to 25 knots. Evening and overnight will likely return IFR stratus conditions, except possibly in the interior East Bay, which could remain VFR according to some models.
For those with maritime interests, the NWS marine forecast anticipates gentle to moderate northwest breezes coupled with wave heights in the 5-7 feet range, consistent throughout the coming days. While there are three tropical disturbances progressing in the Eastern Pacific, none are currently projected to impact our area, but the situation is being diligently tracked.
