Honolulu's weather forecast has residents bracing for a variety of conditions as moderate trade winds persist, with an incremental boost in wind activity anticipated early next week. According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, the islands can expect heightened clouds and showers through this evening thanks to a weak disturbance that's making its way over the region. While these disruptions aren't forecasted to bring significant rainfall, they are set to offer some reprieve to the more lush windward and mauka zones.
As the disruption has traveled over the Kaiwi Channel, the islands, particularly the Windward Big Island, have observed scattered rainfall, with the Hamakua Coast receiving upwards to 4.2 inches near Honolii. "The wetter weather has started to move into East Maui over the last few hours," the NWS reported, alongside predictions of moderate to locally heavy rainfall for Windward Big Island and East Maui today but maintaining that flooding threats are to remain minimal. In contrast, other state areas should see just a slight rise in windward clouds and passing showers.
Clarity in the skies is supposed to make a comeback come Sunday, with the brisk trade winds anticipated by Monday, leading to breezy or locally windy conditions stretching into the subsequent week as high pressure fortifies far northeast of Hawaii. Another disturbance, trailing a more sizeable moisture swath around 137 degrees West, is scheduled to traverse the archipelago on Tuesday, potentially introducing more widespread showers and cloudiness to windward and mauka sectors across every island. With the stronger trades, a spillover of these showers into the drier leeward locales at intervals is also expected.
In aviation, current moderate to breezy trade winds are slated to continue into the weekend while a disturbance is projected to amplify windward showers on the state's eastern end for the rest of today. "Low cigs should favor windward and mauka areas with brief periods of MVFR possible. Otherwise, VFR should prevail," the NWS detailed. They have extended the AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration over windward Big Island with conditions looking to improve by mid-morning.
On the marine front, thanks to an intensifying high pressure system up north, trade winds are to start to ramp up, likely necessitating a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) due to begin this evening and last throughout most of next week for areas and waterways noted for their breeziness near Maui and the Big Island. Surfers should prepare for manageable waves, with south swell background pulses contributing to a below-average surf forecast throughout the island chain over the next week—eastern shores to expect small, choppy surf thanks to the sustained trade winds, which is forecasted to grow rougher as the trades strengthen.
Furthermore, this weekend is predicted to witness peak spring tides, with water levels by local gauges indicating they are surpassing predetermined guidance—at least one foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) line at Hilo, Kahului, and Honolulu, with Honolulu's tide gauge already breaching the one-foot marker. A Coastal Flood Statement for isolated minor flooding has consequently been prolonged through Monday evening, as reported by the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
The issued advisories include a Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, and Big Island Leeward Waters, all in response to the swells and heightened tide levels.
