The National Weather Service in Honolulu has provided an update on the weather outlook for the Hawaiian Islands, anticipating a stable high-pressure system to influence local conditions into the upcoming weekend. According to National Weather Service, residents and visitors can expect moderate to breezy trade winds persisting, with a slight tapering off starting Thursday.
Recent satellite images have detected a cluster of clouds advancing towards the Big Island, associated with a minor low-pressure trough. This movement is expected to increase cloud cover and bring precipitation during the early morning hours to the windward slopes and mountains of Molokai and Maui, extending later to nearby areas. Additionally, there are forecasts for high-altitude cirrus clouds to appear across the state, enhancing the sunrise and sunset with vibrant hues over the next few days.
Despite the mentioned increase in cloud cover and showers, the overarching forecast remains mostly dry, with any rainfall likely to be fleeting and primarily confined to the windward and upland areas. The influence of the high-pressure ridge is expected to limit shower activity due to strong subsidence, keeping trade wind thermal inversion heights between approximately 4,000 to 6,500 feet, as detailed by the National Weather Service.
Aviation alerts have been issued, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds forecasted to continue through the night. Areas passing through the band of low clouds and showers may experience some MVFR cigs/vsbys, although conditions are set to approve as the cloud band progresses. AIRMET Sierra remains in place for various windward sections, signaling mountain obscuration and, the AIRMET may extend to include Oahu later in the day.
For marine interests, a fresh to strong trade wind pattern is anticipated to remain until the high-pressure area weakens and shifts northeastward, paving the way for a gentle slackening of winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until early Thursday morning for select waters, particularly around Maui and the Big Island. South shore surf is expected to stay meager, while east shore surf remains around seasonal averages. An upcoming northeast swell, originating from the California coastline, may impact north facing shores by the weekend. Coastal flood concerns are also on the radar, with higher than normal water levels around the Big Island due to new moon tides, potentially leading to minor flooding through July 6, with the highest water levels predicted for July 4.
