Honolulu residents and visitors should anticipate a continuation of strong trade winds into the early part of next week with short-lived showers primarily affecting windward and mauka regions, according to the NWS Honolulu Weather Forecast. These conditions are expected to sustain until a weak atmospheric disturbance, currently moving towards the islands from the east, potentially enhances precipitation from tonight through Friday.
While the existing surface ridge will likely fortify the trade winds over the coming days, meteorologists are watching a mid- to upper-level trough that could lead to a temporary weakening of winds later today through tomorrow. There's also the possibility that wind advisories might be issued today due to these expected conditions. Strong northeast winds at the Big Island Summits were reported early this morning, but they have started to decline, a trend that should persist as the trough moves through. Concurrently, the trough might also weaken the subsidence inversion, leading to an uptick in windward showers that could even reach the typically drier leeward locales of the smaller islands.
Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week, the region should experience standard trade wind patterns as the ridge holds solid to the north; however, a slight reduction in wind strength could occur later next week with the weakening of the ridge. Showers will continue to be commonplace in windward locations, albeit with limited accumulation expected, "Guidance suggests seasonable trade wind conditions continuing this weekend through early next week, with the ridge remaining strong to the north," the NWS forecast indicates.
Regarding aviation, the continued high winds could result in passing showers that mainly allow for VFR but may temporarily drop to MVFR during rainfall. Wind-induced turbulence will persist over the next few days, necessitating AIRMET Tango for potential mountain lee turbulence and potentially strong surface winds that might exceed 30 knots in the afternoon. The marine forecast equally anticipates strong to near gale-force east to northeast trades with up to 10-foot seas into early next week, a situation that has prompted a Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM HST tomorrow for all Hawaiian waters.
For those heading to the beaches, rough surf conditions along east-facing shores are likely to continue through early next week. There is a possibility of a moderate decrease in surf conditions next week as the systems evolve. Meanwhile, south-facing shores should remain vigilant for increased activity due to a series of south-southwest swells, with a significant swell expected to intensify over the weekend, potentially elevating to advisory levels by late Sunday through Monday. A gentle subsiding of these conditions is anticipated by midweek, offering some reprieve to coastal areas.
