As a surge of moisture rolls into the Hawaiian Islands, locals and visitors can expect an uptick in windward showers continuing through tonight, reports the National Weather Service in Honolulu. While the islands are accustomed to moderate to breezy trade winds, forecasts indicate that the winds are set to ramp up to strong speeds starting tomorrow and carrying through to Friday. In the midst of this, a drier climate is anticipated to take hold over the region as the latter half of the week progresses.
According to the recent weather bulletin, a relatively docile high-pressure surface system, stationed to the north of the islands, has been joined by a surface trough to its south. This pairing has resulted in the current breezy to locally strong wind conditions statewide. Despite an influx of mid- and upper-level troughing, contributing to offshore showers and towering clouds, the disturbance seems to be shifting away northwards, ushering a band of higher moisture from the east, "making it as far west as Oahu early this morning," the NWS detailed. The increased moisture has led to an enhancement of rainfall, particularly in windward areas, although dry mid-level air has capped rainfall totals to a mild extent.
The weather narrative unfolds further with Hilo recording 1.75 inches of precipitable water, corroborating with the Consolidated Model Integration Center's MIMIC data. This moisture will not only saturate windward zones but also traverse westward to Kauai. On the flip side, leeward regions expect scattered showers, though predominantly dry conditions should persist there. Model forecasts concur on this drying trend and the intensification of trade winds towards midweek as the surface trough migrates outward, and the northern high regains strength.
For aviators, the skies mostly pronounce good news. Stable to breezy trade winds tether the regular loop, only tightening their grip as the week treads on. Windward and mountainous domains will see a majority of the showers and cloud cover, with an anticipated prevalence of VFR conditions despite potential Mansfield VFR limitations within the showering regions. "As the winds trend upwards, additional coastal waters will be added to the SCA for the second half of the week," the NWS Honolulu communicated, marking an extended caution period for mariners under the Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday night.
