Battling against the ever-present cloak of the marine layer, the Bay Area greets the middle of August with a familiar chill as the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts a continuation of temperatures at or just below normal and breezy onshore flows. "A very brief shortwave ridge aloft" was squeezing the marine layer this morning, keeping "most of the stratus confined to the coastal areas", according to a statement obtained by the NWS San Francisco Bay Area. This weather pattern is expected to hold through this week, contributing to a rather pleasant pattern slightly cooler than usual for this time of year.

This trend towards milder temperatures seems to stand as yet another progressive trough moving through the Bay Area, as evidenced by looking at the Fort Ord profiler, which revealed temperatures that were a few degrees warmer away from the coast. The winds – gusty primarily in coastal areas and near natural conduits – are not forecasted to pose a major fire weather threat, thanks to the good moisture supply and their nocturnal diminution, but they remain a point of caution as we approach "the climatological peak of dry fuels over the next couple of months", remarked the same NWS report.

With eyes cast toward the sky, aviators are met with good tidings as VFR conditions persist across most of the region and are expected to last through the TAF period. Even though Monterey Bay and KOAK terminals are wrapped in low IFR CIGs early on, the stratus is predicted to lift with the morning sun's embrace. A resurgence of those white sheets is forecasted for the late evening but should not be a cause of concern for most terminals.

The marine outlook, meanwhile, speaks of frothy waves and brisk winds with the NWS warning of gales – strong enough to tease the sea into frenzy south of Point Sur and flirting with such force off Point Arena. Local mariners are advised to heed the "Small Craft Advisory" in effect until Thursday evening for parts of the Pacific waters, a narrative confirmed through the fortitude of a statement by NWS. And as the sun dips below the horizon, the breath of the sea calms, in expectance of a continued moderate sea state through to the beginning of the week.

Looking ahead, the NWS Bay Area post that a high-pressure system that had been contributing to warmer conditions will split, sending one branch toward parts of southern and central CONUS while the other drifts out into the Pacific. This movement and associated troughing signal a forecast for near-below-normal temperatures as we move into the latter part of August.