The National Weather Service in Honolulu has put out the word that we can expect light sea breezes and overnight land breezes to take center stage before moderate easterly trades make a comeback later in the week. "A dissipating trough across the offshore waters north of the islands may provide more focus for frequent showers," explained the National Weather Service, looking ahead at the chances of increased rainfall.
For those tracking the pressure maps and satellite images, a near-stationary low has been playing a pivotal role in our current weather scenario. It's parked itself about 650 miles north-northeast of Oahu, transitioning into an open-wave trough as it trudges west. This system is shaking things up just a bit, keeping the trade winds at bay for a while. According to the National Weather Service, "The early morning ASCAT pass has confirmed that light variable winds have become east southeasterly overnight." Meanwhile, on the Big Island, a ribbon of higher 700 mb moisture is upping the ante on overnight showers, with areas like Honolii Stream and Piihonua collecting a decent bit of rainfall, just under an inch in some spots.
Aviation-wise, the trough near Kauai continues to disrupt the trade wind pattern, ushering in a mix of cloud and shower coverage particularly near Kauai. Pilots should take note of the expected clearing trend through the evening as land breezes kick up and help to disperse the cloud cover. "On Wednesday, expect increasing cloud/shower coverage through the late morning and afternoon hours as sea breezes develop, especially over and around Kauai closer to the trough/moisture axis," as reported by the National Weather Service.
The marine outlook shows trades should see a resurgence starting today and into Thursday, with fresh to occasionally strong breezes anticipated to resurface by the weekend. Swell-wise, north shore surf has hit its peak and is on a gentle downward trend, though the weekend should see a revival with the return of stronger trades. Water enthusiasts, take note, "Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the typical windy waters near Maui and the Big Island," a statement obtained by the National Weather Service.
For now, the Hawaiian Islands are free from any severe weather advisories or warnings, allowing locals and visitors alike to indulge in these temperate climes before the trades pick up the pace, and showers become more of a mainstay in the forecast. However, as trade winds increase and showers become more frequent, this calm period may change.