Bay Area residents can anticipate a nippy start to the New Year, with frost advisories and freeze warnings in effect for various inland areas, signaling a cold snap that poses risks to the homeless and marginally sheltered populations. According to the NWS San Francisco, temperatures are expected to dip between 28 to 36 degrees, leading to potentially dangerous conditions for people without adequate shelter or heating during the night and early morning hours; tender plants may also succumb to the cold if left unprotected.
The prevailing dry air has ushered in this cooler weather, with the moisture from recent rains drying up and likely contributing to the elevated surface dew points, causing a slower-than-expected drop in temperatures, areas within the interior Bay Area, southern Salinas Valley, Santa Lucias, and the Diablo Range are currently under frost advisories, as laid out by NWS San Francisco. The mismatch between the precipitable water and surface dew points seems to be shaping this forecast, we've seen this mass of dry air reduce water vapor from around 1.3 inches during the rain yesterday, to around 0.37 inches, as charted by the GOES 18 satellite.
Looking ahead, the coldest morning of this chilly tenure is predicted for Tuesday, with inland temperatures dropping into the low to mid-30s and the coast experiencing lower 40s. Though breaking cold temperature records is becoming rare, this weather represents the year’s lowest temperatures for much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Overnight bike commuters are advised to don gloves due to the expected icy conditions.
In contrast, a gradual warming trend is forecasted starting Wednesday, as a stream of moisture from the Pacific aims towards the northern part of the state, the general stability of the weather pattern means light rain or clouds likely being the only notable impact of this moisture plume until more dry air arrives over the weekend. The NWS San Francisco’s Area Forecast Discussion leans toward a period of dryness suitable to reinstate outdoor furnishings, with a meridional jet stream and an Eastern Pacific ridge contributing to a return of clearer skies.
Maritime conditions reflect a surface high-pressure area gradually moving southwards and weakening, as fresh northwest winds are expected to prevail through the New Year along the California coastal waters. Boaters should note that a Small Craft Advisory is in place, indicating moderate to long-period swells will persist beneath the wind-driven waves. This advisory underscores caution is needed for those heading out to sea, as per the National Weather Service.
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