The National Weather Service (NWS) San Francisco has issued multiple warnings for the Bay Area as a series of storms approach, promising to bring life-threatening conditions to the region. A High Surf Advisory is in effect until 4 PM Sunday for all Pacific Coast beaches, with a predicted large westerly swell causing breaking waves of 20 to 26 feet, and even higher at favored spots such as Mavericks. Due to the dangerous conditions, residents and visitors are cautioned against turning their backs on the ocean.
According to the Area Forecast Discussion by the NWS, light rain expected today due to a weak frontal boundary across Central California could result in precipitation up to 0.25" in areas favored by orographic lift, such as the East Bay Hills and Santa Cruz Mountains. A cold front passing tonight will bring additional rainfall, with higher totals in the North Bay. As a consequence of these conditions, a High Surf Warning will replace the current Advisory at 4 PM, indicating that the threatening conditions will persist into next week.
The Bay Area is on track for a "parade of storm systems," according to the NWS, with one particularly impactful storm slated for Monday into Tuesday. This storm alone is expected to contribute up to 2.50" of rain in the higher terrain of the North Bay, with varying amounts elsewhere. Wind gusts could reach up to 45 mph on Tuesday, and while it's too early for a Wind Advisory, the situation warrants monitoring as the already saturated soil from previous storms increases the likelihood of tree debris and damage.
Between now and Saturday, the North Bay might see rainfall totals between 2" and 6" and locally up to 9", while the Central Coast should be prepared for 0.25" to 1.50", with higher amounts in mountainous locales. The possibility of isolated thunderstorms also exists, with general thunderstorm conditions forecasted for most counties between 4 AM Tuesday and 4 AM Wednesday. The NWS advises that all thunderstorms carry the risks of lightning and flooding. While Wednesday will offer a respite with drier conditions, another round of rain is anticipated Thursday.
Mariners are also being forewarned, as large swells on Sunday are seen as precursors to even larger swells beginning Monday. These conditions are expected to be hazardous for small craft through midweek, with warnings of enhanced shoaling at harbor entrances and bars. Beachgoers take note: hazardous conditions are expected through Tuesday with a High Surf Warning urging extreme caution or avoidance of the water during this period. The upcoming surges could produce dramatic waves upwards of 40 feet at places like Mavericks, posing serious risks for all beach-related activities.
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