Honolulu's weather forecast is looking stable for the early part of the week, but things may take a turn come midweek. According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, residents can expect "primarily dry and stable statewide conditions, with generally gentle trades," lasting through Tuesday. While the windward areas and mauka slopes may see some limited showers, the rest of the state should stay relatively dry.
However, as midweek approaches, a pattern shift could bring about a change in weather conditions. A northern upper trough is anticipated to dig south toward the islands, possibly leading to increased precipitation. "A significant pattern change may develop through the middle of the week," the National Weather Service warns, although it also acknowledges a "fair amount of uncertainty regarding this trough's potential impact upon regional winds and rainfall distribution." Residents might prepare for gusty southwest winds and moderate to locally heavy rain, which are expected to heighten from Wednesday into Thursday.
The chance for heavier rainfall and potential flooding issues are tied to the development of a cut-off low. This weather event could bring with it strong, damaging winds and the possibility of thunderstorms. The National Weather Service notes that the "evolution of this low and its future movement will be the main driver of any significant periods of heavy rain" and if thunderstorms occur, atmospheric stability may decrease around midweek, leading to these more severe conditions.
Relief appears to be on the horizon towards the end of the week as "weather conditions will begin improving on Friday" when the upper-level trough or low recedes north and away from the state, according to the National Weather Service. Though winds are predicted to remain light, the continued presence of higher mid to low-level moisture could mean that moderate rain chances persist, particularly east of Oahu. For mariners, the forecast suggests a respite from challenging conditions, as a cold front moving through on Wednesday and Thursday should yield more variable winds and potentially, unstable weather with isolated thunderstorms in coastal and offshore waters.
On the marine front, the cancellation of the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) after the weakening of trades is a positive note for those navigating the waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Surf conditions should remain tepid through Tuesday, with the current moderate northwest swell expected to decrease. However, surfers and beachgoers may anticipate a new northwest swell that could escalate to High Surf Advisory levels as it peaks midweek before tapering off towards the weekend.
