Pittsburgh is bracing for a week of wet weather starting today, with the National Weather Service warning of above-average temperatures and an upper-level low that could trigger increased chances of showers and thunderstorms into the evening. "Scattered showers around through dawn" followed by a "Marginal Risk of severe weather is possible today," the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, PA, stated in an area forecast discussion this morning.
The day won't let up much where the weather is concerned; after a few showers in the morning, a break in the convection might give some people hope, but this respite is expected to be short-lived as a series of shortwaves ushers in possible scattered to locally numerous discrete thunderstorms in parts of the region by the afternoon and evening, targeting locations generally to the west and north of the I-79 and I-70 interchange, modest CAPE and weak shear are in play, which could mean low-end damaging wind threat alongside heavy rain potential and conditions appear fast enough to minimise flood concerns. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to stick around past sunset overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, the forecast continues.
As for the rest of the week, Tuesday's cloud cover may dampen severe threats; however, some gusty winds can't be ruled out. Tuesday might see a dry overnight period, but Wednesday is looking much cooler with more showers on deck. The short-term prognosis holds "Cloud cover will limit the heating on Tuesday but showers and thunderstorms are still expected," with conditions brewing for a drier Tuesday night, however, the forecast from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh notes.
Looking toward the weekend, expect elevated precipitation chances through Saturday and near-average temperatures; the trough lodged between the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley is largely responsible for this protracted wet spell, boosting rain chances and cloud coverage through Saturday, ensemble guidance suggests Thursday into Friday could be particularly soggy with possible widespread rainfall and as the week winds down the long-term outlook hints at a break from the wet pattern by Sunday with mainly dry conditions return, but not before the region has been well-soaked by what's anticipated to be between 0.4 to 0.75 inches of rain—or more in certain locales.
For those with travel plans this week, the aviation outlook underscores general VFR conditions this morning but warns that upcoming showers could introduce restrictions into early Tuesday, and low pressure moving in mid-week could mean more rain from Wednesday into Friday, yet most of the week appears VFR between systems. Those conditions are expected before another shortwave trough bringing additional complications, but with so much activity in the atmosphere, aviators are advised to stay alert to the changing conditions throughout the week.
