As California’s first big storms of the season begin to arrive, state officials and frontline forecasters warn that depleted National Weather Service staffing could blunt the state’s ability to track rapidly changing river and flood threats. Reservoir managers and local emergency teams rely on frequent river forecasts and round-the-clock forecast offices — services officials say are already being strained.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office last week flagged cutbacks at the California‑Nevada River Forecast Center as a public‑safety concern, saying the reductions “could limit the state’s ability to track … dangerous shifts in weather,” according to the governor’s office. The CNRFC is a decades‑long partnership between the National Weather Service and the Department of Water Resources that provides river‑inflow guidance used by water managers and emergency responders, per the center’s own description. CNRFC materials note that those forecasts feed reservoir and levee decisions across the state.
The San Francisco Chronicle reports the river center now has three of 10 hydrologist positions vacant and that the hydrologist‑in‑charge role is open; forecasters at the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley offices have fallen to roughly eight and five meteorologists, respectively, leaving them below the 13‑person staffing level needed for 24‑hour operations. The Chronicle says those shortages have already led to offices periodically closing for several hours and to forecasters in Los Angeles and San Diego covering regions well outside their usual beats. "It's a question of rolling the dice over and over and over again," climate scientist Daniel Swain told the paper, underscoring the stakes if a major atmospheric river arrives with reduced human oversight.
National reporting has documented similar strain across the agency: earlier this year the National Weather Service sought to fill more than 150 critical vacancies and some local offices temporarily stopped operating overnight, in a scramble described by The Washington Post. Agency officials and union leaders warned the staffing gap takes months to reverse because new forecasters require lengthy training before they can issue warnings.
How state agencies are trying to plug holes
The Department of Water Resources says it will expand coordination with the California Office of Emergency Services and lean on university modeling to make up some of the lost capacity, but the agency cautioned there is “no substitute for the full capacity of our federal science partners,” according to the San Francisco Chronicle. State officials are also pre‑positioning crews in flood‑prone regions and urging local agencies to update contingency plans ahead of prolonged storms.
What this means for residents
Residents in flood‑prone areas should assume river forecasts and official updates could arrive less frequently during prolonged storms and should sign up for local emergency alerts and NWS products for the Sacramento region. For up‑to‑date river guidance and official forecasts, monitor the National Weather Service river forecast products and local NWS offices online. NWS river forecasts remain the primary source for river stage and flow information.
State officials say they'll lean on university models and interagency coordination while pushing federal leaders to restore staffing, but local emergency managers warn the coming storms are a real test. For now, residents in low‑lying areas should check local flood plans and have a readiness kit as agencies fine‑tune contingency plans.
