The City of Pittsburgh is in for a stretch of unseasonably warm weather, with high pressure continuing to dominate the area's climate through Monday. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh's morning update highlights the extended period of dry conditions and above-average temperatures we're currently experiencing, with no sign of change until at least the beginning of the week. According to the NWS' Area Forecast Discussion, "High pressure remains dominant through Monday, leading to continued dry weather and warm temperatures."
The local forecast is calling for highs to likely run 10-15 degrees above the seasonal norm today. In the short term, this pattern is expected to hold through the weekend, with above-seasonal temperatures and dry weather under mostly clear skies, which is somewhat unusual for this time of year. Pittsburgh residents can expect the daytime temperatures to continue to push the boundaries of our typical early October climate, offering an extended summer atmosphere deep into fall. Overnight lows will also stay just above normal due to the prevailing conditions.
Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the NWS anticipates a potential shift in weather patterns. Although another day of dry, warm conditions is on the books for Monday, changes are on the horizon with a good chance of a wetting rainfall expected by mid-week. The forecast, as stated by the NWS, asserts the next chance of a wetting rainfall arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. Such precipitation would be welcome, albeit not sufficient to break any existing drought conditions.
For those anticipating cooler temperatures, there's a note of uncertainty in the air. Model predictions diverge on just how much the thermometer will dip following Tuesday's rain. NBM 10th to 90th percentile max temperature spreads are near or over 10 degrees from Tuesday on, the NWS reports, indicating that a range of outcomes from slightly below to a bit above normal is possible. The consensus at this time pivots on normalcy for the season, despite the possibilities for fluctuation.
Aviation interests should note largely uninterrupted VFR conditions through Monday, thanks to continued assertive high pressure. The NWS forecasts state that mostly clear skies with light wind are expected through the period. Pilots should, however, be aware of the potential for river-valley fog during the early mornings of Sunday and Monday, which could obscure vision during critical flight times. As we proceed into the next week, those in Pittsburgh should keep an eye out for updates as the anticipated shift in weather patterns could introduce new advisories or necessitate changes in plans.
