More than 1,000 developers, brokers, and lenders packed Theater on the Lake on Nov. 20 for the Lincoln Park Builders' annual Real Estate Forum, and the mood turned political fast. Conversation quickly shifted from deal flow to City Hall as the crowd sized up what 2026 might look like for new construction. On the table were big questions about whether relaxed rules or cheaper financing will really unlock housing, and whether Chicago’s patchwork growth means the next wave of projects will cluster in a few hot spots instead of spreading across the city. For many in the room, the choice is increasingly stark: chase expensive lakefront sites or try to spark work on the South and West Sides, where both demand and need are highest.
According to Lincoln Park Builders, the Nov. 20 event was the group’s 36th annual forum at Theater on the Lake, with a panel discussion followed by dinner and networking. The organization notes the forum typically draws developers, apartment managers, title insurers, lenders, and other key players, essentially the people who decide whether a project actually moves from rendering to ribbon-cutting.
There was at least one tailwind to talk about. Mortgage markets have offered a modest break, with Freddie Mac reporting in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey that the average 30-year fixed rate landed at 6.19% for the week ending Dec. 4, 2025, down from 6.69% a year earlier. Forum speakers said the shift in headline rates helps on the margins, but that entitlement timelines and the stack of local policy costs often matter more when they run their pro formas.
Policy frustrations were never far from the mic. As reported by The Real Deal, AMLI Residential CEO Gregory Mutz blasted Chicago’s Affordable Requirements Ordinance as “a cancer” and warned that steep inclusion mandates and local political dynamics are pushing some projects to other markets with simpler rulebooks.
Where The Deals Land: A Sharp Ward-By-Ward Divide
Developers also highlighted a widening geographic split in where the money is actually landing. Downtown and lakefront-adjacent wards are still pulling in the bulk of capital, while many South and West Side neighborhoods struggle to get shovels in the ground. Citing Chicago Plan Commission data, Loop North News reported that the 27th Ward racked up 36 new developments worth roughly $13 billion between January 2023 and September 2025. Englewood, by contrast, saw only six projects totaling about $150 million in the same window. Loop North News also reports that by 2025, the city had trimmed its inventory of city-owned vacant lots to about 7,000, with roughly 70% of those lots reportedly available for new construction, a pool that builders say they are watching closely.
Moderator Alan Lev summed up the mood in blunt terms, saying, “The pickle we’re in is due to poor leadership and poor policies,” a line captured by Loop North News. Attendees pushed for sharper tax incentives, faster plan review and a clearer, citywide master plan for housing so that more projects can actually pencil out outside the usual hotspots.
Neighborhood-building groups were paying close attention too. Neighborhood Building Owners Alliance president Michael Glasser accepted the forum’s Impact Award and used his remarks to rally owners uneasy about progressive policy shifts, The Real Deal reported. The overarching message from industry leaders was that they plan to push next year for policy changes they argue would unlock both market-rate units and naturally occurring affordable housing.
So while mortgage rates have eased a bit, the takeaway from Theater on the Lake was that Chicago’s 2026 development storyline will be written as much in council chambers as on construction sites. Builders are expected to press hard for entitlement reforms and access to buildable city lots if they want something closer to a true citywide boom instead of yet another lakefront-heavy building spree.
