Honolulu residents, brace yourselves for a notable change in weather as a Kona low approaches, leading to a breakdown of trade winds today and a shift from southeasterly to southerly winds by tonight. According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, this system will usher in "bands of moderate to heavy showers across all islands," with a flood watch in effect from late tonight through Monday evening. The forecast suggests that these conditions may extend into Tuesday due to persistent showers over some islands.
Moreover, a 1032 mb high-pressure system persisting north of Hawaii isn't going anywhere soon. In its latest release, the National Weather Service in Honolulu detailed how "a deepening upper level low roughly 800 miles north of Kauai" is hurtling towards the region. The impending weather is likely to bring not only showers but also possible thunderstorms, particularly in the western islands, with threats of flooding as rain bands align with the archipelago's topography. Concerns have been raised about snow and freezing rain hitting the summits of the Big Island's Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea, though no winter weather advisories have been issued yet due to uncertainty in forecasts.
The likely disruption doesn't end there. Aviation operations could also face challenges. With a band of showers hitting the islands this morning and causing marginal visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions, the NWS has issued an AIRMET Sierra, warning of mountain obscuration for parts of several islands. This will potentially affect those flying in and out of the region until conditions improve later in the afternoon.
Mariners are not spared by the inclement weather either. As the kona low influences the local climate, trade winds will "briefly weaken today and veer southeastward by tonight," and by Sunday evening, seas are expected to get choppy with "strong to near gale-force east to east-southeasterly winds," according to the National Weather Service. With harbors along north-facing shores like Kahului and Hilo possibly experiencing surges, a Marine Weather Statement has been issued. Notably, the weekend also brings peak astronomical monthly tides, which, along with incoming swells, heighten the risk of minor coastal flooding. The NWS has thus extended a Coastal Flood Statement to highlight these risks.
Overall, Hawaii is expected to watch the skies closely as the dynamic weather patterns associated with the Kona low move across the region. With potential flooding, thunderstorms, aviation and marine advisories, and even snow at high altitudes, it's a time for caution and preparation. Stay tuned to the NWS for real-time updates and advisories as the situation develops.
