Hawaii’s tourism industry is bringing in more money per visitor, but not more visitors overall, as total arrivals have leveled off while spending has risen. That means hotels and tourism businesses are seeing solid revenue even though the number of tourists isn’t growing much. At the same time, Hawaii faces increasing competition from cheaper beach destinations and changing airline routes that are drawing some U.S. travelers elsewhere.
Preliminary state figures show about 9.64 million visitors arrived in calendar year 2025 and total visitor spending reached roughly $21.75 billion. That means visitor spending outpaced 2024, even though arrivals slipped a bit. The Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism reported those totals, and the tally still trails the pre‑pandemic 2019 peak of about 10.42 million visitors and $17.75 billion in spending, according to the DBEDT and Civil Beat.
Air service shifts are reshaping demand
Airline schedules are doing plenty of the heavy lifting in this story. Carriers have pared back some international flights and moved early to right‑size capacity in line with softer demand. Jeffrey Eslinger, the Hawai‘i Visitors & Convention Bureau’s market insights lead, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that seat counts will be uneven across 2025 and into 2026, a pattern that gives lower‑cost destinations a chance to scoop up travelers who might once have defaulted to Hawaii.
Maui's Bill 9 and the condo correction
Maui’s latest policy experiment is already reshaping where visitors sleep and who pockets their spending. Maui County’s Bill 9, which phases out thousands of transient vacation rentals in south and west Maui, has sparked warnings about potential losses in tax revenue and jobs, as reported by SFGATE. At the same time, market data show condo values slipping as owners and investors try to read the political tea leaves. Maui Now reports the median condo price fell to about $675,000 in January, with resales and investor demand cooling.
Luxury rooms still command top rates
Where visitor dollars are flowing, they continue to tilt upscale. High‑end hotels have kept more of their pricing muscle even as midscale properties feel the pinch. Industry analysis cited by Travel Weekly and CoStar shows Maui and other premium spots still rank among the nation’s leaders in average daily room rates. That outperformance has cooled, though, and more price‑sensitive travelers are actively comparing Hawaii’s sticker shock with lower‑cost options on the mainland and overseas.
Forecast: slow gains, uneven recovery
State budget writers and tourism forecasters are not betting on a rapid snap‑back to the old records. The Garden Island reports Department of Budget and Finance projections of roughly 9.76 million arrivals and about $22.07 billion in visitor spending for 2026, with steady but modest gains penciled in through 2028. That coverage also notes industry analysts, including TZ Economics, who describe the recovery as “K‑shaped,” with affluent travelers filling premium rooms while middle‑income demand lags behind.
What it means for residents and businesses
For residents, the tradeoffs are close to home. Converting short‑term rentals back to long‑term housing could ease some affordability pressure, but it also risks trimming lodging‑related taxes and seasonal jobs that many communities depend on. State leaders are trying to keep the visitor pipeline flowing: Gov. Josh Green set aside about $6.3 million for tourism recovery marketing aimed at Maui and key West Coast markets, according to TravelPulse. At the same time, county and industry studies warn of real revenue and employment hits if travelers continue to peel away to cheaper rival destinations. The next year is likely to be defined by route tweaks, targeted ad campaigns and contentious local policy debates rather than any dramatic surge in total arrivals.
