Two Republicans are suddenly leading California’s crowded governor’s race, according to a new Berkeley poll, raising the remote but real possibility that Democrats could miss the November ballot entirely under the state’s top-two primary system. Conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are out in front of a packed Democratic field, even as voters seem far from fired up less than three months before the June primary.
Poll Shows Republicans With Early Edge
The Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times survey has Hilton at 17% and Bianco at 16% among likely voters, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter at roughly 13% each, with Tom Steyer at 10%. The poll, conducted online last week, interviewed 5,019 registered California voters and carries an overall margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points. Affordability dominated voter concerns, with roughly four in 10 naming the cost of living as their top issue. These topline numbers and survey details were reported by the Los Angeles Times based on polling administered by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.
Democrats Worry About A Top-Two Trap
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks has urged lower-polling Democrats to think about dropping out so they do not split the vote and accidentally pave the way for an all-GOP November, a trial balloon that immediately drew pushback from several contenders, according to The Associated Press. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, said voters are “kind of sleepwalking to this election,” a mood pollsters linked to low name recognition and weak favorable ratings for most hopefuls, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
Polls Do Not Agree Yet
Other surveys tell a different story. An Emerson College Polling snapshot from earlier this month showed Rep. Eric Swalwell in the lead, underscoring how timing and methodology can shuffle the apparent front-runner. A December report flagged a similar GOP uptick in the race, but strategists caution that the high number of undecided voters leaves plenty of room for the standings to change once candidates consolidate or serious ad money starts flying, per Hoodline.
What To Watch
The key storyline now is whether any Democratic contenders actually step aside or whether major donors and unions rally behind a single standard-bearer, moves that could blunt the Republican edge before June 2. For the moment, the poll highlights a simple math problem for Democrats: a splintered field on their side, a more consolidated vote on the Republican side, and a primary where even a modest shift in turnout could decide who makes it to November.
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