In the shadow of Mar-a-Lago, Democrat Emily Gregory, a small-business owner and first-time candidate, is making her case to represent the Florida state House district that includes the former president's Palm Beach estate. Voters head to the polls in a special general election tomorrow, Tuesday, and Gregory has centered her campaign on property insurance relief, rising health care costs and expanding Medicaid, while criticizing cuts to public education. Her opponent is Republican Jon Maples, and the race has drawn outsized attention because of the district's national-profile address.
According to the official mailer from the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections, the general election is set for Tuesday and the district map covers parts of Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, North Palm Beach, Palm Beach and Juno Beach. The same material outlines early-voting windows and vote-by-mail deadlines for the special election, leaving campaigns a narrow stretch of time to persuade low-turnout voters in a district where every ballot could matter.
Both parties' primaries produced clear nominees. Gregory emerged from the Democratic field and Maples carried the Republican primary, according to WPBF. Maples, a financial adviser and former college basketball player, picked up a high-profile boost when President Donald Trump publicly endorsed him, as reported by local outlet WQIK. Gregory, who lives in Jupiter and runs a postpartum fitness business, has tried to keep the focus on everyday costs and health care access rather than personality politics.
The seat opened after Republican Rep. Mike Caruso resigned last year to become Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller, a vacancy that has framed much of the campaign, according to WPTV. At the state level, Republicans still hold a numerical registration edge, with Florida's voter-registration statistics showing a sizable GOP advantage that Democrats must overcome, per the Florida Division of Elections. That mix of local Republican strength and national attention helps explain why both parties are pressing hard in the race's final hours.
What's At Stake In Mar-a-Lago's Backyard
For Democrats, a win here would be symbolic, flipping a seat that contains the president's Palm Beach estate, and practical, shaving the GOP margin in Tallahassee. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee lists Gregory as a targeted candidate, and national newsletters have flagged the contest as a modest test of whether Democrats can keep extending recent off-cycle gains. Campaign professionals will be watching turnout patterns and the margin of victory for clues about organizing strategy heading into 2026.
Voters in the district are being urged to double-check their registration status and ballot options with the county. The Palm Beach County mailer lists early voting from March 14-22 and an Election Day of Tuesday, along with deadlines to request vote-by-mail ballots. Campaigns are leaning heavily on door knocking and mail ballots because turnout is expected to be low. Local election offices also post sample ballots and polling-place information for residents who want to confirm details before heading to the polls.
Even with a relatively small electorate, the contest is drawing an outsized spotlight. National attention is focused on the returns because the district contains Trump's resort, and strategists on both sides are preparing to dissect turnout and margins as results come in, as first reported by CNBC. Once the polls close tomorrow night, a tight, local fight is likely to be framed as a national political barometer.
