As of Tuesday morning, March 31, 2026, Memphis is waking up mild and mostly dry, with readings in the mid 60s to start the day and an expected climb into the mid 80s this afternoon. South-southwest winds around 15 mph will add to the warmth and are set to turn gusty, with gusts near 30 mph possible in exposed spots.
Afternoon Winds Pick Up
Breezy conditions will take center stage Tuesday afternoon, with sustained south-southwest winds near 15 mph and widespread gusts of 25-30 mph. Isolated pockets could see gusts up to 35 mph in the Bootheel and along the river. The tightening pressure pattern behind a strong Bermuda High is driving the gusty flow, and Memphis International Airport could challenge record highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. No watches or warnings are in effect for Shelby County this morning, according to the National Weather Service in Memphis.
Showers Return Late Week
A slow-moving front will pull Gulf moisture northward and set up a wetter pattern by midweek. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return by Thursday, April 2, 2026, with several rounds likely through the weekend, so outdoor plans on Thursday and Friday should probably come with a backup option. We first flagged this warm-to-wet shift in our storm threat update.
Rain Chances And Amounts
By Thursday, the chance of rain climbs, with showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday night and into Friday. Localized totals of a quarter to a half inch are possible Thursday night, and ensemble guidance points to roughly 1.5 inches spread over several days. That should help with drought conditions but is not expected to trigger widespread flash flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Memphis.
What This Means For Plans
Today is a decent bet for outdoor plans if you can handle the heat and gusty winds. Secure patio furniture and smaller loose items, and give extra room to high-profile vehicles on bridges and other exposed routes. Before traveling later in the week, keep an eye on updated forecasts and local advisories, since conditions may shift as the system moves in.
