Memphis is waking up Monday, March 2, 2026, to a mostly cloudy, mild start, with mid 50s on the thermometer and a light south-southwest breeze. A few hit-or-miss showers could slide through by late morning, but most of the day looks dry and overcast, with highs pushing into the upper 60s. If you are heading outside this afternoon, a light jacket should be enough, since the heavier, more organized rain is not on tap until later in the week.
Morning Rain Chance
A chance of rain showers hangs around through about 11 a.m., with a high near 69°F and rainfall totals generally staying light, under a tenth of an inch. The pattern turns stickier and more unsettled through the week, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances frequently above 50% and afternoon highs jumping into the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday, March 3, and Wednesday, March 4, 2026. There is a medium, roughly 50 to 60 percent, chance of heavier rain later this week and into the weekend, mainly along and north of I-40. Forecasters say some strong storms are possible Wednesday evening, March 4, although a widespread severe weather outbreak is not expected, according to the National Weather Service in Memphis.
Commute And Outdoor Plans
Drivers should be ready for damp roads during any passing showers, especially on Thursday morning, March 5, 2026, after rain moves through Wednesday night. Even quick downpours can slow traffic and cut visibility, so leave a little extra time if you can. If you have outdoor events or projects lined up later in the week, it is smart to keep a Plan B in your back pocket, since pockets of heavier rain could force brief delays. You can dig into the midweek setup in more detail in our look at how Memphis’ warm-up hits a wet wall Wednesday night.
Weekend Watch
By Saturday, March 7, 2026, a stronger front may fire up efficient, rainfall-producing thunderstorms while temperatures near or above 80°F help fuel heavier downpours. Forecast models are still squabbling over the exact timing, but forecasters are watching a low-probability severe weather threat for the weekend. The highest rainfall totals and greatest storm risk are expected along and north of I-40, where storms could train over the same spots and lead to localized ponding on roads. Keep an eye on late-week updates as the setup comes into better focus, per the National Weather Service in Memphis.
