A new statewide poll suggests that folding a ban on gender-affirming medical care for minors into a proposed constitutional amendment could actually make it easier to outlaw most abortions in Missouri. The survey shows a narrow edge for the repeal-style measure and finds broad opposition to transition-related medications and surgeries for minors.
The survey was run by the SLU/YouGov polling partnership in early February as part of Saint Louis University's regular statewide polling program. The university's polling archive shows that Saint Louis University routinely teams up with YouGov to question likely Missouri voters and track attitudes on reproductive and social issues across the state, including ballot measures and candidate approval ratings, according to Saint Louis University.
In this round, support for the repeal-style proposal, often dubbed Amendment 3 in campaign coverage, came in at about 47% to 40%, with a reported margin of error near 3.6 percentage points. The poll also found that 67% of respondents opposed gender-transition medications for minors and 73% opposed transition surgeries for minors. "Pretty much every political actor in our poll this time went down," SLU poll director Steven Rogers told Missouri Independent.
Ballot and legal stakes
Amendment 3 would erase the voter-approved reproductive-rights language passed last year and swap it for a measure that sharply limits most abortion access while also barring gender-transition procedures for minors. Missouri already restricted gender-affirming medical care for minors in 2023, a law that has drawn lawsuits and continuing legislative attention. Reporting by PBS NewsHour outlines what the proposed amendment would do and the current legal landscape around trans-care restrictions.
Who the poll finds for and against
The survey points to clear splits by age and education. Voters 18 to 29 backed the ban-style question at roughly 49%, while voters 30 to 44 showed the highest level of opposition, with about 47% against it. Educational attainment was another strong dividing line: respondents without a college degree leaned toward supporting Amendment 3, while those with college degrees leaned against it. Those demographic details and other topline findings were reported by Missouri Independent.
What’s next
The question is poised for a bruising fall campaign and likely court fights before voters ever see a final ballot. Judges and lawmakers could still shape the ballot language and timing between now and November. State leaders and advocacy groups are already honing messages that either deliberately link abortion and transgender policy or work hard to separate them, a strategic push and pull the poll suggests could sway tight margins, according to coverage by AP.
Campaign strategists say the SLU/YouGov numbers highlight how bundling hot-button social issues can shift voter attitudes in a polarized electorate. The coming months will test whether that effect holds once campaigns unleash full-scale advertising and voters are hit with competing narratives on both reproductive rights and transgender care.
