Oklahoma City residents may want to keep one eye on the sky and the other on the radar this week, with a storm system expected Tuesday, May 5, that could sling quarter‑size hail and wind gusts near 60 mph across parts of southeastern Oklahoma and some Tulsa‑area counties. Forecasters expect scattered storms to fire up Tuesday afternoon and roll into the evening, followed by steadier, mostly non‑severe rain that should taper off into the morning of Wednesday, May 6.
Before the front arrives, western Oklahoma is forecast to heat up into the mid‑80s to near 90, which will push fire danger higher in the drier parts of the state. Forecasters caution that both the timing and punch of this system could shift as new model data comes in over the next few days, so staying weather‑aware is the name of the game.
KOCO meteorologist Joseph Neubauer describes a “one‑out‑of‑five” severe risk for slices of southeastern Oklahoma and portions of the Tulsa area. In that corridor, storms could deliver quarter‑size hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph, with the main severe window arriving Tuesday afternoon, May 5, as a cold front moves through, according to KOCO.
The National Weather Service office in Norman, meanwhile, is calling for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and southeastern Oklahoma and highlighting elevated to near‑critical fire weather across western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. In its discussion, the agency notes the front may stall near the Red River, and that western counties could see humidity plummet into the teens while temperatures climb into the upper‑80s to lower‑90s ahead of the system. That combination would raise fire danger and the potential for rapid fire spread where fuels are ready to burn.
When To Expect It
Most forecast models and local outlooks pin the primary threat window on Tuesday afternoon and evening, May 5. Scattered storms are possible during the day, with heavier but mostly non‑severe rain expected late Tuesday night into the morning of May 6.
KOCO’s team currently sees only a small chance for storms on Monday, around 10 percent, because a strong cap aloft may keep most activity from breaking through before the front shows up, according to KOCO.
What To Watch For
The main concerns are quarter‑size hail and damaging straight‑line wind gusts. The National Weather Service notes that “instability and deep layer shear may support some elevated hailers,” which is meteorologist‑speak for storms that can crank out hail from higher in the atmosphere even if surface conditions are less intense.
Western and northwestern Oklahoma, where highs could reach the upper‑80s to lower‑90s before the front, may also see elevated fire danger thanks to very low humidity and southwest winds, according to the same guidance. That mix can help fires start more easily and spread faster than usual.
Anyone with travel plans, outdoor work or events in the affected zone on Tuesday should keep tabs on updated forecasts and have a shelter plan ready if severe storms develop. Check weather radios, phone alerts and local station updates through Monday and Tuesday for the latest on timing and risk.
