Tuesday morning, July 14, Nashville wakes up to a muggy start: humid, partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the low 70s, and air that feels a bit like a warm sponge. The first half of the day should stay mostly dry, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms ramps up after 11 a.m., with afternoon highs expected to top out near 88°F.
Afternoon Storm Chance
After 11 a.m. Tuesday, July 14, scattered showers and thunderstorms start to move in, with the best coverage during the afternoon and an overall rain chance near 50%. Most storms look to be quick-hitters, but brief downpours and gusty winds are on the table. Many neighborhoods may only see light rainfall, while a few spots, especially south of the city, could get hit with heavier bursts, according to the National Weather Service.
Overnight Fog And Minor Flood Risk
Patchy fog is likely to redevelop in the pre-dawn hours, especially where showers fall, with the fog most favored between about 3 and 4 a.m. Wednesday, July 15. The forecast discussion notes that "Some storms will produce heavy rainfall which could lead to minor flooding or ponding," so be ready for water collecting on roads after any downpours, particularly in southern counties. Low-to-medium storm chances are expected to linger through the week, with day-to-day shifts in how widespread storms become, according to the NWS.
Heat Builds Late Week
From Thursday, July 16, through the weekend, temperatures trend hotter, with afternoon highs climbing into the low-to-mid 90s. Dew points in the low to mid 70s will keep things feeling tropical, and heat-index values could push near 100 degrees at times. Expect more sticky mornings, plenty of afternoon sun, and those hit-or-miss storm chances hanging around as the week rolls on.
Plan Ahead
Keep water handy, try to limit intense outdoor activity during the peak afternoon heat, and budget extra time for commutes in case a storm dumps enough rain to slow traffic. Check the hourly forecast before heading out and follow local guidance if storms start to fire.
