New Orleans’ main forecast concern is the potential for heavy weekend downpours and localized flash flooding, according to the National Weather Service. Before that risk builds, Monday is expected to be hot and mostly sunny, with a high near 90 and only a 5% chance of rain. Light north winds should keep conditions fairly calm, and skies stay clear tonight as temperatures dip to about 74.
A Calm Start, With Rain Risk Rising Later
Tuesday should bring another sunny day near 90 degrees, with a light east wind and a low around 75 Tuesday night. Wednesday stays warm near 89, but a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives after 1 p.m. Outdoor plans have their best odds early in the week.
An earlier Sunday outlook from Hoodline described a sunny Monday and a wetter turn beginning Thursday. The latest forecast keeps the dry weather through Tuesday, then calls for increasing storm chances later in the week and into the weekend.
Storm Chances Jump Thursday
Thursday brings a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with storms becoming more likely during the afternoon even as temperatures reach about 89. Friday looks wetter still, with a 70% chance of rain, a high near 87 and thunderstorms likely after midday. Southeast to east winds should run around 5 to 15 mph.
Heavy Rain Risk Builds Into The Weekend
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday and Sunday, with rain chances around 75% and afternoon highs in the mid-80s. The National Weather Service says deeper tropical moisture could support very heavy downpours, with localized flash flooding a concern, especially in urban areas and places with poor drainage.
What the drainage system can handle
According to a July 16, 2025, Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans (SWBNO) release, the drainage system is designed to pump one inch of rain during the first hour and an additional half inch per hour thereafter. A past event shows how intense rainfall can exceed that rate: SWBNO reported that more than 2 inches fell in less than an hour across much of New Orleans on May 12, 2019, outpacing the drainage system’s capability. That event does not establish the rainfall rates or drainage conditions expected this weekend.
No watches, warnings or advisories are currently posted for New Orleans. Still, residents with weekend plans should keep an eye on updated forecasts and be ready for water-covered streets, sudden downpours and lightning during the more active periods.
