Oregon's 2026 governor's race has tightened into a virtual toss-up, with a new poll showing Republican Christine Drazan narrowly ahead of Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek, 45% to 43%. The survey of 600 likely Oregon voters carries a 4-percentage-point margin of error, meaning Drazan's 2-point edge falls within statistical range of a dead heat.
The poll, conducted by DHM Research, a nonpartisan opinion research and polling firm based in Portland, found Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith pulling 4% support, with 13% of voters still undecided less than two months before Election Day. As the KATU report on the numbers notes, that sizable undecided bloc could still swing the outcome either direction.
The same poll found Kotek's job approval underwater, with 59% of respondents saying they disapprove of her performance compared with 37% who approve. Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed said Oregon is on the wrong track, according to the polling data reported by the Oregon Journalism Project.
Affordability and Schools Top Voters' Minds
Voters identified overall affordability as their top concern at 87%, followed by K-12 education at 85% and housing affordability at 78%, per the same poll results. Those pocketbook and classroom issues have become the central battleground of a race that pits an incumbent governor against the same Republican rival she defeated four years ago.
This is a rematch of the 2022 race, when Kotek beat Drazan 47% to 43.5%. Democrats have won every Oregon governor's race since 1986 — the state hasn't elected a Republican governor since Victor Atiyeh served two terms from 1979 to 1987, according to the historical context cited in the KATU report.
A Second Polling Average Also Shows a Dead Heat
The tight DHM numbers aren't an outlier. Pollsmax's polling average, which aggregates results from four polls and adjusts for timing and partisanship, shows Drazan leading Kotek by just 0.5 percentage points, 44.9% to 44.4%, according to Pollsmax. That site also identifies the DHM survey as having been conducted on September 9, while the Oregon Journalism Project's report on the same poll is dated September 11 — a discrepancy in the record that has not been resolved.
A Polymarket market description tracking the race notes that scheduled October debates and the presence of a Pacific Green Party candidate add variables to an already close contest. The same market summary states that Kotek's campaign has emphasized opposition to federal policies and Drazan's legislative record on vote-by-mail, while Drazan has pointed to challenges including economic stagnation, according to Polymarket.
Debate and Campaign Cash Loom Over the Final Stretch
Kotek and Drazan are set to debate for the first time this year on Oct. 1 at 6 p.m. on the University of Oregon campus in Eugene, an event KVAL is moderating, per the KATU report. The debate could offer undecided voters a first direct comparison between the two candidates ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.
Money remains lopsided in Kotek's favor. Her campaign has raised nearly $12 million since the start of last year and has $8.2 million on hand, compared with Drazan's $9.4 million raised and $2.4 million remaining in the bank, the polling report states. Whether that financial edge translates into votes may hinge on how the undecided 13% ultimately break — and how affordability, schools and housing costs weigh on their decision when they head to the polls.
