President Trump's approval rating has slipped to a new second-term low of 41%, with his net approval underwater by 14 points, according to Morning Consult's latest weekly tracking poll. At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is closing the gap on Vice President JD Vance in early 2028 Republican primary testing, climbing to 22% support after gaining seven points since July.
The Morning Consult data, first reported by Tampa Free Press, shows Trump's economy rating sitting 18 points underwater, with 53% of voters saying they've heard mostly negative economic news — the highest negative response across all tracked topics. Seven of twelve tracked policy issues, including health care, entitlements, energy and foreign policy, now sit at second-term lows for the president, while immigration and national security remain his strongest areas even though neither has posted a positive net rating since July.
Among Trump's own voters, 55% now disapprove of his job performance, a warning sign inside his coalition as the 2026 midterms approach. Democrats have widened their generic congressional ballot advantage to 5 points, with all of the party's issue leads growing since early August — including an 18-point edge on health care, a 12-point edge on housing, an 8-point edge on energy and a 7-point edge on the economy, per the same tracking data.
Rubio Narrows Vance's Primary Lead
On the Republican side, the 2028 primary field showed its first notable movement since March, according to the Morning Consult survey. Vance remains the frontrunner at 36% support, but that figure ties his series low, while Rubio has climbed nine points since March to become the only candidate besides Vance to reach double digits in any polling wave this cycle. Vance's advantage over Rubio, which stood at 33 points in March, has narrowed to 14 points.
Ron DeSantis holds 8% and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sits at 5%, with both remaining within the margin of error, the survey found. A separate Emerson College national poll released earlier in August found Rubio outperforming Vance in hypothetical 2028 general election match-ups, including a 49% to 44% edge over Kamala Harris, while Harris leads Vance by four points — numbers that help explain why establishment donors are taking a second look at Rubio.
That donor movement isn't new. Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, who contributed more than $100 million to Republican causes in 2024, told attendees at a Sun Valley conference in July that he would back Rubio over Vance in a 2028 primary fight, as Hoodline reported in a jolt to Ohio GOP circles. Texas Senator Ted Cruz has likewise pushed back on the idea that the party has already coalesced around Vance, telling attendees at a recent event that the GOP still faces a full ideological debate over populist interventionism versus traditional free-market conservatism, a dynamic Hoodline detailed in coverage of Cruz's GOP identity warning.
Trump Confirms He Cannot Seek Third Term
Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in August, Trump himself conceded that the 22nd Amendment strictly bars him from seeking a third presidential term in 2028, according to footage of the exchange. That acknowledgment, paired with his sinking approval numbers, has intensified the jockeying among prospective successors on both sides of the aisle even though the general election remains more than two years away.
Democrats See Their Own Shuffle Behind Harris
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris has held steady atop the primary field at 24% support, flat across five consecutive polling waves. Gavin Newsom sits at 12%, matching his lowest point of the year after falling from 19% in June, while Pete Buttigieg has remained unchanged at 9%.
Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has emerged as the field's fastest riser, climbing from 1% in May to 2%, then 3%, and now 7% in the latest Morning Consult wave — his third consecutive polling gain. A separate Emerson College survey put Ossoff even higher, at 13%, tying him for third place behind Buttigieg and Newsom, even though Ossoff maintains he has no plans to run, according to reporting from Israel Hayom.
Ballotpedia's presidential approval tracking index puts Trump's 83rd-week second-term approval average at 38.8%, notably lower than his 43.3% average at the identical point in his first term back in 2018 — a historical marker underscoring how much softer his standing is this time around. As Hoodline previously reported, Trump's approval sinking to 40% in the Emerson survey came alongside a stark 30-point gender gap, with 62% of women disapproving compared to 32% approving — a divide that continues to weigh on his numbers heading into the midterms.
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