An 81-year-old man in Palmetto Bay who has voted outside the Republican line three times in 50 years, including this year, is doing it again. An 88-year-old retired chief financial officer in Fort Myers, a lifelong registered Republican, mailed in a ballot for multiple Democrats at the top of the ticket. Both say their main problem is Donald Trump, and both are part of a small but notable group of Florida Republicans casting protest votes in Tuesday's midterm election.
A Referendum On Trump, Not A Party Switch
Tom Gray, the Palmetto Bay resident, voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and for Trump in his first two presidential runs, before backing Kamala Harris in 2024, according to the Miami Herald. This year he plans to vote for Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly and U.S. Senate candidate Angie Nixon, while still voting Republican further down the ballot. Gray views the midterms as a referendum on Trump and points to the administration's mass deportation push as hitting people he considers the heartbeat of South Florida, on top of his worries about the rising cost of living, the newspaper reports.
Jim Smith, the Fort Myers retiree who spent most of his life in Coconut Grove, told the same paper he wants the United States out of its war with Iran and wants fixes to Social Security. He said he is backing Nixon because he thinks the country needs to move left, even as he insists he remains a Republican who hopes the party finds its way back to its proper course. Neither Gray nor Smith, nor Manatee County Commissioner George Kruse, is interested in actually changing his voter registration — these are described as protest votes, not conversions, per the Miami Herald's reporting.
Why Some Republicans Are Frustrated With One-Party Rule
The Herald's reporting ties this discontent to a broader complaint: Florida Republicans hold a supermajority in both chambers of the Legislature, control the Cabinet and governor's mansion, and have appointed virtually every judge in the state. Some Florida Republicans cite exactly that kind of one-party dominance as their reason for crossing over this year, and Democrats are counting on it — the party faces a steep voter-registration disadvantage statewide and needs registered Republicans to either stay home or vote blue to have any shot at statewide wins.
That dynamic is visible beyond South Florida. On the Suncoast, some Republicans have broken with their party over frustration with rapid development, developer influence, and state preemption of local control, according to WUSF. Sarasota MAGA Patriots chair Conni Brunni endorsed Democrat Julie London for Sarasota County Commission, saying, “I believe Julie London is the only thing standing between us in this community and unbridled development.” Fewer than one-quarter of registered voters in London's district are Democrats, the station notes.
A Manatee Commissioner's Calculated Crossover
In Manatee County, Republican Commissioner George Kruse is backing both Jolly and Democratic congressional candidate Kelly Kirschner, helping lead Republican-support groups for each campaign, according to the Bradenton Herald. Kruse argues government works better with friction and veto power, and he says Congress needs people willing to push back against Trump. But his support has limits: Kruse is not voting for Nixon because she backs ending the Senate filibuster, which currently requires 60 votes instead of a simple majority to pass legislation, the Herald's reporting notes. Fellow Manatee Commissioner Jason Bearden, who describes himself as the board's most conservative member, has also urged supporters to back Democrats Charles Smith and Reggie Bellamy in local commission races, per the same report.
Beyond Florida, this kind of crossover isn't unheard of — in Iowa, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand launched a “Rob-publicans” campaign that has drawn more than 100 Republicans publicly backing him, according to Mother Jones. In Florida, that outlet also reports that Bobby Williams, who lost the GOP gubernatorial nomination to Byron Donalds, has publicly supported Jolly but is not officially endorsing him, and that Frostproof City Council member Austin Gravley — a Republican who voted for Trump three times — has done the same. The outlet attributes the discontent partly to rising gas and grocery prices, the war in Iran, and growing disapproval of what it calls Trump's excesses.
What The Polling Shows
A University of North Florida poll released this week found Donalds leading Jolly 49% to 47% in the governor's race, with 4% undecided, and Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading Nixon 49% to 45%, with 5% undecided. Both leads narrowed from UNF's July poll, which had shown Donalds ahead by five points and Moody by eight, the station reports. The same survey, conducted October 12 through 19 among 1,471 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 points, found Jolly holding a 16-point edge over Donalds among independents while pulling 11% of registered Republicans; just 5% of Democrats said they'd vote for Donalds.
Other polls tell a mixed story about which candidate is winning more crossover support. A Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy survey found Donalds pulling a larger share of cross-party voters than Jolly, while St. Pete Polls found the two candidates receiving roughly equal shares of voters registered with the opposing party, per the Miami Herald's reporting. In the Senate race, polling shows Nixon attracting more Republican crossover voters than Moody attracts from Democrats, with Nixon — a progressive community organizer and state representative — having built grassroots support on the left while also winning over some white Republicans. Donalds, who would become Florida's first Black governor if elected, has in recent weeks sought support from Black Democratic voters, the newspaper notes.
A Razor-Thin Early Vote
As of noon Monday, Republicans led Democrats by just 9,380 ballots out of more than 2.9 million cast early and by mail, according to Florida Today. That margin is striking given the GOP's 1.5 million-voter registration advantage statewide, and unaffiliated voters could affect close contests. Florida State University political scientist Lonna Atkeson told WUSF the uncertainty cuts both ways, with Republicans either crossing over to vote Democratic or simply choosing not to turn out at all.
What Gray, Smith and Kruse share, according to the Miami Herald, is a hope that their votes next week send a clear message to their own party — without giving up their registration as Republicans.
