Memphis is getting one more warm, mostly dry day before Halloween weekend turns noticeably wetter. Friday will start near 60 degrees under mostly cloudy skies, then climb to around 80 with partial sunshine and little wind. Rain is not expected during the day, but dry air and parched fuels will keep fire danger elevated.
Friday Stays Warm And Dry
The National Weather Service expects east-southeast winds of 5 mph or less through the afternoon. Relative humidity will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, prompting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement from noon through 7 p.m. Residents burning yard waste or using outdoor flames should use extra caution.
The fire danger comes amid a broader dry spell: the National Weather Service’s latest Mid-South drought statement says 99% of the region is experiencing some degree of drought, and most of the area received an inch or less of precipitation in the 30 days before the statement. The office also expects above-normal wildland fire potential through the rest of October and into November. Its Friday afternoon discussion listed no watches, warnings or advisories for Tennessee, separate from the day’s fire danger statement. The NWS drought statement and Friday’s area forecast discussion detail those conditions.
Halloween Weekend Brings Rain And Thunderstorms
Saturday will be mild, with a high around 77 degrees as showers develop mainly in the afternoon. Showers are likely Saturday night, with an 80% chance of precipitation. The latest Memphis point forecast gives the temperature and rain chance.
Sunday brings rain and possibly isolated thunderstorms, with an 80% chance of precipitation and a high near 69. For Saturday Halloween plans, showers are expected to develop mainly in the afternoon, with rain more likely overnight. The NWS point forecast provides the Sunday outlook and Saturday-night rain chance.
Clouds linger Monday with a high near 74; a 20% chance of showers begins after 1 a.m. Tuesday brings a 50% chance of precipitation, and Wednesday a 40% chance; a few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Wednesday. The NWS expects the next system’s rain to arrive mainly Tuesday and Wednesday, with average area totals of 1 to 2 inches. The Memphis point forecast gives the daily precipitation chances, while the NWS discussion gives the expected rainfall timing and amount.
Rain totals could vary across the region. The Memphis office expects less than a half-inch west of the Mississippi River this weekend, with amounts approaching an inch closer to the Tennessee River. For the next system, forecast confidence is more limited: the office projects average totals of 1 to 2 inches Tuesday into Wednesday, while the probability of at least an inch is 20% to 30%. The NWS discussion lays out the rainfall estimates and uncertainty.
Clouds linger Monday with a high near 74, followed by additional rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. The broader outlook calls for a warm, wet pattern, with roughly 1 to 2 inches of rain possible across the region between Monday and Wednesday.
