Overdose risk climbed 65% higher than expected within two to four blocks of a Minneapolis homeless encampment in the three days after it was cleared, according to a newly shared University of Minnesota study. The finding adds fresh urgency to an ongoing debate in the Twin Cities over how cities handle encampment closures, as St. Paul's city council has just approved its own proposal aimed at softening the process.
The research, led by University of Minnesota epidemiologist Kumi Smith, compared a database of 87 Minneapolis encampment clearings documented between April 2024 and March 2025 against 1,431 nonfatal overdose 911 calls logged during that same window, according to Axios. Smith's team partnered with community members who have experienced homelessness to build out the analysis, and the increase in overdose risk held up even when researchers widened their lens to an eight-block radius and a two-week period, the outlet reports. The findings are based on a summary and remain pending publication.
Smith is an associate professor in the university's Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, where her work focuses on health disparities at the intersection of infectious disease, substance use and unstable housing, per her University of Minnesota faculty profile. She served as principal investigator on a related university project, titled Tracking Despair, that examined the health impact of encampment abatement policies on people experiencing homelessness from October 2023 through June 2025, the profile notes.
Speaking With MPR, Smith Walks Through the Findings
Cathy Wurzer spoke with Smith about the research for MPR News, where the study concluded that areas surrounding closed Minneapolis encampments saw noticeable overdose spikes in the days that followed. City officials have defended clearings by pointing to risks within camps themselves, contending that encampments carry dangers including fires, shootings and overdoses.
Minneapolis has leaned heavily on closures in recent years. The city shut down 17 encampments between July 25 and December 18, 2024, affecting 227 unsheltered residents, according to data reported by Fox9. That six-month stretch cost the city $332,620, with nearly $270,000 — 81% of the total — going toward police costs, the station found. City data also showed that 311 and 911 calls tied to a cleared site dropped sharply afterward, down 83% and 76% respectively.
One Site Closed Eight Times in a Single Year
More recent numbers suggest the cycle keeps repeating at the same locations. Minneapolis officials recorded ten encampment closures during the first six months of 2026, and eight of them happened at the exact same site, Fox9 reported in a separate story. Outreach workers offered shelter assistance 278 times ahead of those closures, but only nine offers were accepted, according to the station's reporting.
The pattern isn't unique to Minneapolis. A Johns Hopkins review found strong evidence that involuntary displacement disrupts access to health care, treatment and social services, making chronic conditions harder to manage, according to a report published by Johns Hopkins. A separate simulation study modeling data from 23 U.S. cities projected that involuntary displacement could raise overdoses and hospitalizations over a decade while cutting initiation of medications for opioid use disorder, per the same review. A Denver study of 397 people experiencing homelessness cited in that review also found displacement was significantly associated with higher risks of infectious disease, substance and alcohol use, and worsening mental health.
Minnesota's Overdose Numbers Offer Mixed Signals
Statewide, the overdose picture through August 2026 is more complicated. Minnesota recorded 565 suspected overdose deaths from January through August, down 6% from 601 during the same stretch in 2025, according to the Minnesota Department of Health. But August alone bucked that downward trend, with 70 suspected overdose deaths compared with 54 the prior August, the department's snapshot shows. State health officials caution that suspected deaths serve only as an early indicator, pending further investigation and confirmation by Minnesota medical examiners.
A modeling study out of the University of Colorado projected that involuntary displacement policies could account for 15% to 25% of deaths among unhoused people who use drugs over a decade, using data drawn from 23 U.S. cities, according to the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. That same research projected substantial increases in overdose deaths, life-threatening infections and hospitalizations tied to displacement policies nationally.
Similar dynamics have surfaced outside Minnesota. Research in California and Colorado found that encampment closures were followed by spikes in overdoses, hospitalizations and worsening health, according to KQED. Street-health workers in Alameda County told the outlet they frequently lose contact with patients once encampments are cleared and residents scatter, complicating ongoing care. Oakland's encampment count rose nearly sevenfold in a year, while San Francisco police increased monthly encampment-related arrests roughly tenfold between spring 2024 and April 2025, KQED reported.
St. Paul Moves Toward a Slower Closure Process
Against that backdrop, the St. Paul City Council has approved a proposal aimed at addressing homelessness with a different approach. The plan calls for low-barrier housing options and a 60-day outreach window before any encampment closure, and it now heads to the mayor for consideration. The 2024 Supreme Court decision in Grants Pass v. Johnson, which upheld city ordinances allowing penalties for sleeping in public even without sufficient shelter beds, has left cities like Minneapolis and St. Paul with wide legal latitude to set their own encampment policies, according to the U.S. Supreme Court opinion.
