A new statewide poll out two weeks before Election Day shows Georgia voters splitting their ballots in dramatically different directions, with Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff holding a comfortable lead over Republican Mike Collins while the races for governor and lieutenant governor remain locked in near-ties. The survey found Ossoff ahead of Collins 51.8% to 44.9% among likely voters, even as Republican Rick Jackson edged Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms by just 1.6 points in the governor's race.
Quantus Insights Survey Finds Wide Senate Gap
The poll, conducted by Quantus Insights and reported by Atlanta News First, surveyed 755 likely voters statewide from October 15–17 and carried a margin of error of 3.8 percent. Ossoff's advantage was especially pronounced among women, who backed him 56%, and voters under 30, among whom he led by 41 points, while Collins held a nine-point edge with voters 65 and older and support from 51% of men. Independent voters, who made up a quarter of the sample, broke for Ossoff 56% to 35%, with 2.9% of senate voters still undecided.
That spread tracks with other recent surveys. Public polling averages more broadly have put Ossoff ahead by about nine points, according to the same Atlanta News First report, a margin Quantus Insights itself noted was eight points greater than his fellow Democrats running down-ballot.
Governor's Race Tightens When Leaners Are Counted
Jackson's edge over Bottoms widened slightly to 49.0% versus 47.5% once lean voters were factored in, with 4.5% of governor voters still undecided, per Atlanta News First. The gender split cut sharply in opposite directions: women supported Bottoms over Jackson 50% to 44%, while men backed Jackson over Bottoms 54% to 43%. Georgia's suburbs favored Ossoff over Collins by 13 points and tilted toward Jackson over Bottoms by three points, a crossover pattern that underscores how differently voters are treating the top and bottom of the ticket.
Black voters, a critical Democratic constituency, backed Bottoms over Jackson 82% to 10% and supported Ossoff over Collins by an even wider 89% to 7%, according to the poll. Quantus Insights noted that Georgia's statewide races have been decided by just one or two points over the last six years, a historical pattern that helps explain why both parties are treating the governor's race as a genuine toss-up even with Ossoff's commanding Senate lead.
Lieutenant Governor Race Essentially a Coin Flip
The contest to succeed Burt Jones as lieutenant governor was even tighter than the governor's race, with Republican state Senator Greg Dolezal leading Democratic state Senator Josh McLaurin 47.3% to 46.6%, leaving 6.1% of voters undecided. Both candidates currently serve in the Georgia General Assembly as state senators, according to FOX 5 Atlanta. Independent voters favored Dolezal over McLaurin 48% to 43%, and Georgia's suburbs leaned toward Dolezal by six points, with undecided suburban voters making up 10% of that region's sample. In the Atlanta media market specifically, the race was effectively even.
Money Gap Explains the Diverging Trajectories
The financial imbalance between the Senate and governor's races helps explain why one contest looks settled and the other does not. Ossoff entered the final stretch with about $26 million in cash on hand after raising $33 million in the third quarter, compared with barely $1 million in cash on hand for Collins after he raised $2.7 million over the same period, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Georgia television advertising was pulled as spending shifted toward tighter Senate races.
The governor's race tells a different financial story. Jackson, who grew up in foster care, is associated with Jackson Healthcare. Bottoms had raised just $5.7 million total through July and entered late summer with only $770,000 cash on hand.
Candidates Clash Over Cost of Living
On the economy, Bottoms has proposed a $250 million state stabilization fund that would let local municipalities exempt grocery sales taxes, while Jackson has proposed a 50% state income tax reduction paired with automatic gas tax suspensions, per The Current GA.
Former President Barack Obama is set to join Ossoff and Bottoms at a “United for Georgia” rally in Atlanta on October 28, part of a late push to boost Democratic turnout before early voting ends October 30. Early voting had already surpassed 500,000 ballots statewide in its first week, with the campaign trail activity following a string of high-profile appearances, including Obama's video endorsement of Bottoms and a Trump rally in Dalton backing Collins and Jackson.
