Mary Peltola remained just shy of a majority in Alaska's U.S. Senate race as of Friday, holding 49.8% of first-choice votes to Sen. Dan Sullivan's 46.1%, according to vote totals that left the contest teetering on the edge of a ranked-choice tabulation. If that threshold holds once counting wraps up, the race will be decided not by a simple plurality but by Alaska's ranked-choice system, which redistributes votes from eliminated lower-ranked candidates according to voters' next available preferences.
A Race Still Too Close to Call
The 49.8% to 46.1% split was reported by the Anchorage Daily News as of Friday, after more than 20,000 additional ballots were counted that day, pushing the total tallied past 279,000. Alaska Public Media put Friday's update at roughly 22,500 new ballots, with the Associated Press estimating 96% of Alaska's ballots counted but still declining to call the race. As that outlet noted, “she still has less than 50% of first-choice votes. If that remains so, the race will likely be decided by ranked choice tabulation.”
Not every tracker agreed on the exact numbers. FairVote's preliminary tally, posted Saturday, put Peltola at 49.6% and Sullivan at 46.3% — a slightly tighter margin than the figures reported a day earlier by Alaska Public Media and the Anchorage Daily News. Either way, the race sat on the same knife's edge: just below the majority Peltola needs to win outright without a ranked-choice runoff.
Two other candidates rounded out the field. Dan J. Sullivan, described by the Anchorage Daily News as a retired teacher from Petersburg, held 1.6% of first-choice votes, while perennial Republican candidate Gerald Heikes had 2.1%, per the same outlet's count.
What Ranked-Choice Math Says So Far
The state's official ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, after the deadline for ballots mailed from overseas to arrive, according to Alaska Public Media. FairVote's own preliminary ranked-choice modeling, run ahead of that official count, showed Peltola defeating Sullivan 51.5% to 48.5%, a margin of 8,034 votes. The Anchorage Daily News noted that Peltola could still clear 50% of first-choice votes outright and avoid a ranked-choice tabulation altogether.
The Anchorage Daily News separately reported that preliminary second-choice data from down-ballot candidates pointed the same direction, concluding that Peltola is likely to win even if the race is ultimately determined by tabulation. FairVote also noted a pattern from past Alaska elections: late-arriving ballots have tended to favor Democrats more than those counted earlier in the process.
Justice Department Lawsuit Looms Over Certification
A U.S. Justice Department lawsuit filed Oct. 22 sought to block certification of the race if Sen. Sullivan lost, pending an investigation into whether confused voters accidentally selected the wrong candidate named Sullivan. Alaska Public Media reported that the Justice Department is appealing a federal judge's dismissal of that case, but because the government did not seek an expedited schedule, no decision is expected before the new Congress is sworn in.
Separately, the New York Times reported that a Peltola campaign staffer was instructed during the summer of 2025 to find Alaskans named Dan Sullivan, and that the effort grew broader from there, with the group working to coax other would-be spoiler candidates into the race, based on interviews, text messages and documents the paper reviewed. Peltola has denied knowing about the recruitment drive.
The seed version of this story, published by the New York Post, reported that Peltola, a 53-year-old former House member, declared victory in the race and that her campaign said no mathematical path remained for Sullivan to win, with Peltola to be elected senator once remaining votes were counted. The Post also reported that Sullivan last posted to social media on Nov. 4, when he said Alaska differs from the Lower 48 despite a possible blue wave there, and that the paper could not immediately reach him for comment.
Governor's Race Already Decided
Unlike the Senate contest, Alaska's governor's race has been called. The Associated Press declared Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins the winner Friday evening, with 50.8% of the vote at the time of that report, according to Alaska Public Media. Kreiss-Tomkins defeated Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor, becoming Alaska's first Democratic governor elected since 1998, with a cross-party endorsement from Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, per the Post's reporting.
Ranked-Choice Voting Survives Its Own Repeal Vote
Alaska's ranked-choice system — the very mechanism that could decide the Senate race — was itself on the ballot earlier this month. As of Nov. 3, with 98% of precincts reporting, the “No” vote on Ballot Measure 2, which sought to repeal the voting system Alaska uses, was leading with nearly 52%, according to Alaska Public Media. The repeal campaign, Repeal Now, had reported raising nearly $2.6 million by late October, while opponents of repeal had raised $10.4 million.
FairVote pointed to Alaska's history of nail-biter Senate finishes decided deep into the counting window, citing Sen. Lisa Murkowski's 2010 win and Mark Begich's 2008 victory, both declared at the end of the state's 15-day absentee-ballot period.
The Alaska Division of Elections' own results page states that ranked-choice results will not be available until 15 days after the election, or Nov. 18, once all eligible ballots are reviewed and counted. Until then, the Senate race remains in a holding pattern, while voters have rejected Ballot Measure 2, which sought to repeal ranked-choice voting.
