James Talarico has posted his strongest polling numbers of the entire campaign, with a new survey showing the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely Texas voters. It's the widest margin Talarico has recorded from a nationwide polling source since launching his campaign in September 2025, with the state's Senate race set to be decided Tuesday.
A Seven-Point Lead, But Don't Call It Settled
The numbers come from a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday, which surveyed 1,215 Texas voters, according to the El Paso Times. The exact polling window is disputed: the New York Times reported the Texas survey ran from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, while the paper's own interactive cross-tabs list the field dates as Oct. 27 to Nov. 1. The margin of sampling error is similarly inconsistent between sources — the Times reported it at plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, while the Siena Research Institute put the Texas figure at 3.4 points, including a design effect of 1.29.
What isn't in dispute is the headline number: a seven-point overall margin for Talarico once leaners are included, per the Times/Siena cross-tabs. Siena separately said the Senate polls showed leads within the total margin of error and that a Senate majority for either party remained possible. The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers, and nearly 98% of respondents were reached on cellphones, the same source notes.
Talarico's Strength With Women, Young and Hispanic Voters
The crosstabs behind the poll, cited by the El Paso Times, show Talarico building commanding leads among several key groups. He polled at 56% among women, compared with Paxton's 38%, and at 72% among voters aged 18 to 29, versus Paxton's 23%. Among voters 30 to 44, Talarico led 55% to 33%.
Talarico also polled at 65% among Hispanic voters against Paxton's 27%, and at 85% among Black voters compared with Paxton's 10%, according to the same seed reporting. Paxton, for his part, polled better among men, leading 48% to 44%, and among voters 45 and older. White voters preferred Paxton over Talarico by a wide 59% to 35% margin, while voters with a bachelor's degree or higher favored Talarico 53% to 40% — a divide that flipped among voters without a college degree, who favored Paxton 48% to 45%.
Talarico Dominates Cities, Paxton Holds Rural Texas
The regional breakdown underscores Texas's familiar urban-rural split. Talarico led in Dallas/Fort Worth 53% to 43%, in Houston 55% to 37%, in the San Antonio area 55% to 33%, and in Austin by a lopsided 62% to 30%. Paxton, meanwhile, dominated the rest of the state outside those metro areas, leading 59% to 36%. Talarico campaigned in Plano, Texas, in October as part of his statewide push.
How This Poll Stacks Up Against Others
The Times/Siena survey is one of several in recent weeks to show Talarico ahead, though the results vary. Late-October polling cited by Newsweek generally found Talarico ahead or tied with Paxton, with Quantus Insights the lone late poll to show Paxton ahead, 48.7% to 47.6%. An AtlasIntel poll gave Talarico a 5.9-point lead, Newsweek reported, while Data for Progress found him up 49% to 45% among 712 likely voters, and a CNN poll of 923 voters put him ahead 49% to 43%. A YouGov survey conducted Oct. 26-29 showed Talarico leading 51% to 47%, while a Trafalgar Group survey taken Oct. 31-Nov. 1 found the two candidates tied at 48%.
Other recent surveys have painted a tighter picture. Emerson College Polling found Talarico's support had crept up roughly a point a month since August, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton hovered between 46% and 47% — a race Emerson's own Oct. 17-19 survey with Nexstar pegged at 48% to 46%, with 1% backing Libertarian Ted Brown and 5% undecided, within a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 points. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll taken Sept. 25 to Oct. 5 found Talarico ahead 50% to 47% among 861 likely voters, a three-point edge the pollsters described as within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 points.
What's Driving Turnout This Cycle
Across the seven states included in the Times/Siena polling, just 38% of likely voters approved of President Trump's job performance, according to the Times. In Texas specifically, early voting patterns suggest a shifting electorate: Hispanic voters made up 19% of the statewide early electorate, up from 16% in 2022 and 17% in 2024, according to GOP data analyst Derek Ryan as reported by Houston Public Media. Harris County's early turnout rate reached 39%, far above 2022's 29%, and more early voters cast ballots in Hidalgo, Starr and Webb counties than in 2024, per the same report.
Houston Public Media also points to past elections as a guide to the stakes in play. In 2024, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties together accounted for close to 16% of the statewide vote, with Trump carrying them by margins of 5, 11 and 13 percentage points respectively. That same year, Colin Allred won 55.6% of the vote in Bexar County and 57.9% in El Paso County. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke won about 58% of the vote in Harris County on his way to a statewide loss of 2.6 percentage points — a reminder that strong urban numbers alone haven't always been enough to flip Texas statewide.
