The blustery days are getting blusterier as the National Weather Service in Honolulu forecasts an uptick in trade wind speeds across the islands through Friday. These winds bring a slight relief for windward showers, which have been frequent across the region, drenching Oahu extensively overnight with most areas receiving between 0.20-0.50 inches and some isolated spots seeing up around 1 inch of rainfall. As these showers retreat, a drier air mass is expected to settle over the state, according to National Weather Service.
On the flip side, strong trades are not without their complications. Several areas, particularly in Maui County and the Big Island, have been flirting with wind advisory criteria, leading to concerns on land and at sea. Land-dwellers can expect these gusty conditions to carry on through the second half of the week with a handful of locations potentially hitting the advisory thresholds by Wednesday or Thursday. The robust winds are also churning up the seas, necessitating a Small Craft Advisory in effect for numerous waters around the islands, noted by the National Weather Service to persist through Thursday—with a keen eye on the possibility of an extension.
An upper-level trough is ushering in high cirrus clouds southward towards the island chain, expected to start making their appearance on Thursday and last into the weekend. The aerial ballet of clouds, however, won't do much to soften the wave of drier, sunny weather anticipated for leeward areas. Meanwhile, aviators are being cautioned on changing sky conditions as AIRMET advisories are currently in place for mountain obscuration and turbulence, arising from the increasing wind speeds and ongoing moisture movement.
Focusing on the marine outlook, stronger trade winds are stirring higher, rougher surf along east facing shores, which should peak above the summer average around Friday into Saturday. Boaters are directed to adhere to the Small Craft Advisory currently cast wide over the archipelago's coastal waters. The winds may die down after the weekend as the high pressure to the north weakens, potentially scaling back the advisory to spots typically prone to windier conditions.
Back on terra firma, the fire weather watch remains particularly sharp. The uptick in winds, combined with dry and stable conditions, is raising red flags for potential fires especially through to Friday afternoon. These winds are projected to ease as we sail into early next week, according to National Weather Service, but arid conditions on the leeward side seem poised to stay put a little longer.
