Honolulu residents can expect light to moderate trade winds to give way to warmer and muggier conditions as the week progresses, with limited shower activity anticipated. According to the latest National Weather Service's Honolulu forecast, trade winds this morning will gradually diminish, leading to light and variable winds from tonight through mid-week, contributing to clear nights and mornings ahead.
The shift in weather is due to two high pressure areas situated northeast and northwest of the islands, which are expected to quickly develop into a strong cutoff low around 900 miles NNE of the state—a formation that will, in turn, weaken the local pressure gradient. This change will result to allow light and variable winds over the islands for a few days. However, a resurgence of trade winds is forecasted by Thursday, ensuring a more typical shower pattern that will likely favor windward and mauka areas.
Rainfall is projected to remain sparse in the coming days. "A strong mid-level ridge will bring anomalously warm 500 mb temperatures in a relatively dry environment (with near to below normal precipitable water values)," says the National Weather Service. As a result, any rainfall that happens will produce little in the way of accumulation. Interior and mauka regions may see some isolated showers due to the development of overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes, with a slight increase in cloud and shower activity expected for Kauai as a dissipating frontal boundary approaches around Tuesday.
For aviation and marine interests, moderate trade winds are set to decrease, leading to more isolated showers primarily in windward and mauka districts. The marine outlook indicates a north swell easing by tomorrow, while a new north to north-northeast swell, triggered by a gale low to the north, is scheduled to hit tomorrow night and peak by Tuesday night. This will affect surf along north-facing shores, as well as select east-facing shores with moderate surf. As the week wanes, fresh to locally strong trades forecasted at the week's end should cause rougher conditions along east facing shores. Meanwhile, a small south-southeast swell is expected to produce minimal surf across southern shores, with the possibility of a small, long-period south-southwest swell reaching Hawaii by next weekend, courtesy of a storm-force low that recently passed south of New Zealand.
No immediate weather advisories or warnings are in place, as the state prepares for a broadly serene and untroubled week on the weather front.
