San Francisco's hotly contested mayoral race sees nonprofit founder Daniel Lurie poised to unseat incumbent Mayor London Breed, this according to recent poll results from The San Francisco Chronicle, which endorsed Lurie about a week ago. With the city's ranked-choice system at play, Lurie has been inching towards victory thanks to strong second-choice preferences, according to The Chronicle's poll, which states Lurie leading the final tally with 56% compared to Breed's 44%. Meanwhile, suggestions from Together SF Action—a moderate group—indicate the race is a "too close to call" scenario, setting up a dramatic finish to the election season.
While Breed's initial first-choice support reflects her incumbent advantage, it's Lurie's surge in votes beyond the first rank that's crafting a new narrative, the August poll showed him trailing behind, but he now shares nearly equal first-choice support with Breed at 23% and 24% respectively, then when second and third preferences kick in, his lead solidifies. According to Dan Kopf, Data Editor at the SF Chronicle, "It's just one poll, but it's probably the best recent data on the state of the race," meanwhile, Mark Farrell, once a top contender, has seen dwindling numbers and a decline in favorability.
Why did the Chronicle do polls? The same reason it's done for the presidential election. Without data, people will still speculate about the state of the race. They will make voting and donation decisions based on speculation. It's better, when possible, to have actual data.
— Dan Kopf (@dkopf) October 21, 2024
The Chronicle's commissioned poll, conducted October 15-16 with 802 likely voters, shows an ebb in support for candidates like Farrell and an uptick for Supervisor Aaron Peskin, reflecting the malleable nature of voter preferences, with Farrell notably dropping from 20% to 14% in first-choice votes and Peskin rising to nearly 20%. Breed, under the scrutiny of a city dissatisfied by continued struggles, has to rally the remaining 13% of undecided voters reported by The Chronicle if she is to overcome Lurie's momentum, which is further compounded by Lurie's hefty campaign spending, reported to surpass $15 million.
Joe Arellano, speaking for Breed's campaign, expressed confidence that their candidate continues to hold the primary position despite "Daniel Lurie and his mother spending $15 million to try and buy the election," inferring that without such funding, Lurie's polls could be starkly different. The approach towards the final count appears to be a battle of perceptions and strategies, with Breed's team underscoring experience over Lurie's efforts to depict himself as a rejuvenative outsider, striving to reset the gears of City Hall governance.
