The Bay Area is bracing for a deluge as the National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Flood Watch from Saturday through Monday afternoon for the North Bay, indicating the potential for significant rainfall and flooding. The Watch highlights that an atmospheric river is expected to deliver moderate to heavy rain, forecasting 2-3 inches in valleys and up to 6 inches in the coastal mountains that could provoke rapid rises in creeks and streams, as well as urban standing water, according to the National Weather Service.
According to the NWS Area Forecast Discussion, the region will face not just flooding risks but also "impactful and likely very hazardous winds Tuesday through early Friday" along the coastline and at higher elevations inland. The forecast warns of hazardous beach conditions from Tuesday through Friday for all Pacific Coast beaches, underscoring the risk associated with marine activities. The risk of flash flooding is also on the table, with the yellow shaded areas on the map facing a 5-15% chance from Sunday to Wednesday.
On Sunday, moderate to heavy rain is expected to hammer the North Bay, with the precipitation expected to extend south to the Monterey Bay area by late night and early Monday morning. With the surface low pressure moving inland near the California-Oregon border, coastal and the higher-elevation regions could see wind gusts peaking between 30 and 40 mph. For North Bay residents, nuisance flooding is expected to increase by Sunday evening, and prospective dangers include sharp rises in small creeks and streams, with Mark West Creek in Sonoma County being highlighted for its history of rapid level increases during heavy rainfall.
Heading into the midweek, the forecast gets grimmer. "Bottom line: moderate to heavy rain and hazardous winds are expected for much of next week," the NWS forecast states, urging residents to adjust holiday travel plans to dodge the most severe weather. The service also signals that areas such as the Russian and Napa rivers could reach at least action to minor flood stages. Additionally, "residents should be prepared for impacts to holiday travel (driving, flight delays, etc)". Gale-force winds and more intense weather systems are forecast to persist, potentially disrupting power with downed trees and other structures weakened by saturated grounds.
The aviation and marine sectors are not exempt from the impending storm's reach. The TAFs for Sunday predict increasing low clouds and rain, with a significant uptick in southerly winds and rain rates into the evening. Mariners, in particular, should be cautious, as seas are forecasted to be very hazardous with waves potentially exceeding 20 feet, accompanied by the menacing possibility of near-storm-force and isolated hurricane-force gusts.
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