The U.S. economy just picked up a small but welcome tailwind, according to Chicago. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index nudged back into positive territory at the start of 2026, signaling a modest rebound in overall activity after a soft finish to 2025. The composite indicator came in at +0.18, reversing December's negative reading and easing concerns about weakening momentum heading into the new year.
As reported by MarketScreener (Dow Jones), the CFNAI rose to 0.18 in January from -0.21 in December, while the three month moving average (CFNAI MA3) edged closer to the zero line. Readings above zero generally point to growth that is stronger than the historical trend, and negative values suggest the economy is expanding at a below trend pace.
What the CFNAI Tracks
The CFNAI rolls up 85 monthly indicators into a single weighted composite, pulling from four broad buckets: production and income, employment, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders and inventories. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago notes that the index, its three month average and a diffusion measure are meant to be viewed together to help judge whether economic activity, and any related inflation pressure, is narrow or broad based.
Timing And Why It Matters
The Chicago Fed acknowledged that the release schedule got knocked off course by delayed government statistics, stating that “the publication of the CFNAI ... has been delayed as a result of the recent federal government shutdown.” The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issued a batch release on Feb. 23 that covered both December and January, which is why several outlets ended up dissecting multiple months of data in a single update.
Markets And Coverage
Financial and currency traders did not wait long to pick through the numbers for clues on where policy and the dollar might head next. Forex focused site FXStreet quickly published a rundown of the report, while analysis providers such as Advisor Perspectives highlighted that breadth measures like the diffusion index can be just as important as the headline CFNAI figure when deciding whether any improvement is truly broad based.
What To Watch Next
Economists will be watching closely to see if the January bounce has legs in the February release and whether the CFNAI MA3 can move decisively above zero, which would lend support to the case for more sustained above trend growth. Release calendars show the next CFNAI publication is scheduled for March 23, 2026, according to national data listings from ALFRED.
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