After months of sellers holding their breath through every inspection, the wave of failed home deals is finally easing up. April brought a small but noticeable dip in canceled contracts, even as some markets are still far shakier than others.
According to a Redfin analysis, just over 47,000 U.S. home-sale agreements were canceled in April, which is about 13.4% of homes that went under contract. That share slipped 0.1 percentage point from March and is now at its lowest level since September 2024. As National Mortgage Professional reports, the trend suggests buyers are drifting back into the market as conditions stabilize. Redfin notes that the figures are seasonally adjusted and could be revised.
Mortgage rates gave buyers a short window
Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell for three straight weeks in April, slipping into the low 6 percent range. That brief break in borrowing costs gave some buyers a little more room in their budgets.
That bit of relief likely convinced some would-be purchasers to hang on to their contracts instead of bolting after inspections, appraisals or financing surprises. The reprieve did not last long, though. Freddie Mac and other trackers reported that rates climbed again in May, suggesting that the softer cancellation numbers could be on borrowed time.
Sun Belt buyer's markets still lead fallout
Even with the national rate easing, cancellations are still piling up in a familiar set of Sun Belt metros where buyers have the upper hand. Atlanta tops the list with a 19.3% cancellation rate, followed by San Antonio at 18.9%, Fort Worth at 17.6%, Tampa at 17.4% and Phoenix at 17%.
In these markets, extra inventory and softer pricing give shoppers more choices, which makes it easier to walk away when inspections turn up issues or financing hits a snag. Redfin examined the 50 largest U.S. metros to compile the rankings.
Where deals held up
On the other end of the spectrum, seller-leaning markets saw very few deals fall apart. San Francisco logged the lowest cancellation rate in April at just 2.8%. Nassau County followed at 3.3%, with San Jose at 6.8%, and both Montgomery County, Pa., and New York City hovering around 7.5%.
National Mortgage Professional notes that tighter inventories and renewed demand, especially in San Francisco, helped keep contracts intact. That split between soft and hot markets goes a long way toward explaining how the national rate can look steady while local conditions remain wildly uneven.
What it means for buyers, sellers and lenders
For sellers in high-inventory metros, the message is clear: price the home realistically and be prepared to offer concessions or credits if you want to keep the deal from falling apart late in the game.
Lenders and originators, meanwhile, can take some comfort from a stabilizing fallout rate, which suggests buyers are arriving more prepared and more serious before signing a contract. Industry observers told Inman that pending-sales data also shows a modest pickup in demand that could push cancellations even lower if mortgage rates cooperate.
The bigger picture is still fragile, though. A renewed jump in mortgage rates or a sudden economic shock could send cancellations right back up. For now, everyone from buyers to brokers will be watching rate moves and pending-sales reports closely as the spring selling season rolls on.
