Maricopa County’s Board of Supervisors voted on July 15 to put a hard stop to county workers using insider information to cash in on prediction markets. The new ethics policy, which applies to roughly 10,000 employees under the board’s authority, bars staff from profiting personally on online platforms where users wager on elections, policy moves and other major events. Violations can lead to discipline up to firing, and, in serious cases, possible referral to law enforcement. County officials framed the change as a preemptive move to protect public trust at a time when controversial trades and insider allegations on these markets are drawing national scrutiny.
What the Policy Does
The board’s measure explicitly forbids employees from placing, or helping others place, wagers that rely on nonpublic information learned through their jobs, and it designates that information as confidential for this purpose, according to Maricopa County. The policy outlines a range of disciplinary options that can reach up to dismissal and notes that suspected misuse can be referred to law enforcement.
Local coverage reported that the board voted unanimously on July 15 and that supervisors described the move as proactive rather than a response to known misconduct. FOX 10 Phoenix detailed the vote and carried statements from board members backing the change.
Why Leaders Moved Now
County officials said their action closely follows an executive order from Gov. Katie Hobbs that instructs state executive-branch employees not to use nonpublic information to profit on prediction markets and to treat that information as confidential. The order, issued earlier in July, warns that violations may result in removal from state service and referral to law enforcement. The governor’s office outlined those requirements and potential penalties.
The county also pointed out that the state-level steps are unfolding against a backdrop of high-profile legal and criminal cases involving prediction markets. That includes a federal indictment accusing a U.S. service member of using classified information to place profitable bets on the Polymarket platform. Reporting on that case has amplified questions about how insider knowledge can warp supposedly crowd-sourced odds. KPBS covered the indictment and its broader implications.
Who Is Covered and How It May Be Enforced
Supervisors say the new rule covers the roughly 10,000 employees who report to the Board of Supervisors and is designed to head off conflicts of interest before they surface. District 2 Supervisor Thomas Galvin has described the policy as a common-sense safeguard meant to preserve public confidence in county decision-making.
Public-affairs experts told reporters that the rapid growth of prediction markets is creating fresh ethical challenges for local governments that have not traditionally dealt with employees betting on policy outcomes. Those comments, along with the county’s employee estimate and Galvin’s remarks, were reported by FOX 10 Phoenix, which also cited ASU School of Public Affairs professor Thom Reilly on the importance of public trust in this area.
Legal Implications
The county’s move lands in the middle of a messy national fight over who, exactly, regulates prediction markets. Arizona has previously pursued criminal charges against a prediction-market operator, while federal regulators have argued that some event contracts fall under federal commodities law. In April, a federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against some operators while those jurisdictional battles play out. The Associated Press reported on that courtroom tug-of-war and the larger regulatory dispute, noting how state and federal authorities are still sorting out their roles. AP coverage has tracked those developments, and earlier reporting on Kalshi’s Arizona charges has been cited by county and state officials as context for why internal ethics rules are now on the table. Kalshi Hit With Rap Sheet lays out the state-level case.
Maricopa County’s policy makes it one of the first large U.S. counties to adopt explicit ethics rules around prediction markets. Officials say the goal is to keep local government insulated from the kind of insider trading concerns and national headlines that helped spur the change. For now, enforcement will run through standard county disciplinary channels and, when appropriate, referrals to law enforcement for further investigation.
