Texas Democrats are posting narrow leads in five separate statewide races just days before early voting kicks off, according to a new poll that has both parties bracing for a genuinely competitive midterm in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. The numbers show Democratic candidates ahead not just at the top of the ticket in the U.S. Senate and Governor's races, but also down-ballot in contests for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Railroad Commissioner. Republican Don Huffines leads the Comptroller race; all six margins are thin enough to fall inside the poll's stated margin of error.
The survey, conducted by the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project between September 25 and October 5, polled 861 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percentage points, according to the Texas Politics Project. That means every top-line margin reported — from the Senate race down to Comptroller — is technically a statistical dead heat rather than a clear advantage, a distinction that matters enormously given how the numbers are being read nationally. CW39 Houston reported the poll shows Democrats leading in the Texas U.S. Senate, Governor and Lieutenant Governor races specifically, with early voting in Texas set to begin October 19.
Democrats Lead Down the Ballot, Not Just at the Top
Beyond the marquee Senate matchup between Democratic Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, and the Governor's race between Democrat Gina Hinojosa and incumbent Greg Abbott, the same survey found Democrats ahead in three additional statewide contests. Vikki Goodwin holds a 3-point edge over four-term Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Nathan Johnson leads Mayes Middleton by 1 point for Attorney General, and Jon Rosenthal edges Bo French by 1 point for Railroad Commissioner, according to the Houston Chronicle. Republican Don Huffines holds the lone GOP advantage among the down-ballot races, leading by 1 point in the Comptroller contest, the paper notes.
Down-ballot races like these rarely draw headlines, but they carry real weight over how Texas is actually governed day to day. The fact that Democratic competitiveness appears to run the length of the statewide ballot — not just at the Senate and Governor level — suggests the enthusiasm driving the numbers isn't confined to a single marquee race.
An Enthusiasm Gap Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
What's powering these tight numbers, according to the same polling, is a lopsided enthusiasm gap. Seventy-two percent of Texas Democrats say they are “extremely” or “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms, including 53% who say they're “extremely enthusiastic,” compared to 62% of Republicans overall and just 37% who say they're extremely fired up, the Houston Chronicle reported.
That enthusiasm is paired with unusually strong party discipline on the Democratic side. Ninety-eight percent of Democratic likely voters say they're backing both Talarico and Hinojosa, compared to 92% of Republicans sticking with Paxton and 93% backing Abbott, according to the Texas Politics Project. It's a gap that points to slight Republican defection at a moment when Democrats are consolidating almost unanimously behind their ticket.
Independents and Suburbs Tilt Toward Talarico
In the Senate race specifically, independent voters are breaking hard for Talarico over Paxton, 69% to 11%, according to WFAA. That swing bloc appears to be a central reason Talarico holds even a slim edge over an incumbent statewide officeholder in Paxton.
Demographic crosstabs show Talarico ahead among Latino voters 54% to 41%, among women 56% to 40%, and in both urban areas (54% to 41%) and suburbs (54% to 44%), according to FOX 7 Austin. Paxton, meanwhile, holds a commanding lead in rural Texas, 66% to 30%, and leads among male voters 54% to 42%, the station reported — underscoring just how geographically and demographically split the race remains.
Favorability Numbers Reveal Candidate-Specific Weak Spots
Talarico's favorability sits at 92% among Democrats, compared to Paxton's 69% rating among Republicans, per the Texas Politics Project. Dan Patrick, the four-term Lieutenant Governor, posted a net negative favorability overall — 33% favorable versus 38% unfavorable — a number that helps explain why his race against Goodwin is tighter than a longtime incumbent might expect.
Yet even with those candidate-level numbers breaking in Democrats' favor, the structural picture in Texas still tilts Republican. Voters statewide hold a more favorable overall view of the Republican Party, at negative 7 net favorability, than the Democratic Party, at negative 17, according to WFAA. It's a reminder that candidate-specific polling advantages aren't the same as a broader realignment in how Texans view the parties themselves.
A Competing Poll Shows Abbott Still Ahead
Not every survey released this week tells the same story. A separate Marist poll, also released Wednesday, showed Abbott leading Hinojosa by 4 points, 49% to 45%, among likely voters — a result that directly contrasts with the UT/Texas Politics Project findings in the Governor's race, according to the Marist Poll. The split between the two surveys illustrates just how volatile gubernatorial polling remains with early voting set to begin Monday, October 19.
If any Democrat does manage to win statewide in November, it would mark the first such victory in Texas since 1994, breaking a 32-year Republican streak, per the Houston Chronicle. That history looms over every one of these numbers, whether the final margins hold up or evaporate once votes are actually counted.
The polling landscape fits into a broader run of Texas Senate coverage this cycle, including Vice President Vance's rally for Paxton and Paxton's own acknowledgment that the Trump convention hurt his bid. Other recent surveys, including one from Texas Southern University that showed the race tightening to a single point, have shown a similar pattern of a razor-thin Senate contest heading into the final stretch before Texans start casting ballots next Monday.
