For the first time in years, prospective homebuyers are seeing a small but real shift in their favor. National affordability is nudging up, and borrowing costs have softened, giving some would-be buyers a bit of breathing room. The change is early and uneven, and in Chicago, the relief is partial at best, with local prices and thin inventory still keeping many buyers on the sidelines. Economists and local brokers say a better spring market is possible, but far from guaranteed.
National numbers point to early improvement
Redfin's recent analysis shows the income needed to afford the typical U.S. home fell to about $111,252, a roughly 4% decline from a year earlier, and that affordability improved in 37 of the 50 largest metros. That shift, the company says, has been driven by cooler price growth and lower mortgage rates, which together trim monthly payments and expand buyers' purchasing power. According to Redfin, buyers are also getting larger discounts and more negotiating leverage than they had in recent years.
Mortgage rates dip under 6%
The cost of financing is a big part of the story. Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey recorded the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging just under 6% in late February, the first such weekly reading below 6% since 2022. Lower rates translate into smaller monthly payments for a given loan amount, which can make dozens of neighborhoods marginally more affordable. See the weekly survey data from Freddie Mac for the most current averages.
Chicago still feels squeezed
Locally, the gains are more muted. Redfin's metro breakdown shows Chicago buyers need roughly $105,440 a year to afford the median home, about a 3.5% increase from a year ago, underscoring that price pressure in the city has outpaced national easing. The Chicago Association of REALTORS®' December market snapshot puts the city's median sale price near $350,000 and reports a steep drop in inventory, a combination that keeps competition strong and bargains scarce.
How to approach the spring market
Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather has said the market should "loosen" as the pandemic-era rate-lock effect fades and more homeowners list their properties. Fairweather made that point in an interview with Business Insider and appeared to discuss similar themes on local TV, per FOX 32 Chicago. For practical steps, industry groups urge buyers to get preapproved, shop multiple lenders, and have inspection and closing funds ready before making offers, guidance summarized by the National Association of REALTORS®.
What to watch next
Buyers and watchers should track weekly mortgage surveys for rate moves and local listing activity for signs that supply is finally loosening. If the 30-year stays under 6% and Chicago's listings rally even modestly, buyers could see more negotiating room, so it is worth checking updates from Freddie Mac and the Chicago Association of REALTORS® for the latest figures.
