Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has inched into a narrow lead in California's crowded governor's primary, pulling 19 percent support in a fresh Emerson College poll that shows former Fox commentator Steve Hilton and billionaire Tom Steyer nipping at his heels at about 17 percent each. With ballots already landing in mailboxes and early in-person voting about to kick off, the contest is turning into a test of which campaigns can lock down their base and reel in late-deciding voters.
The Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of 1,000 likely primary voters, conducted from last Saturday to Sunday, put Becerra at 19 percent, Hilton and Steyer at 17 percent apiece, Katie Porter at 10 percent, and 12 percent of voters still undecided, according to Emerson College Polling. The poll reports a credibility interval similar to a plus-or-minus 3 percentage point margin of error. Hilton's backers look the most dug in, with about 73 percent saying they are certain to stick with him, compared with 52 percent of Becerra supporters and 48 percent of Steyer voters who say they are locked in. Emerson's executive director, Spencer Kimball, has framed Becerra's climb as a meaningful reshuffle in the Democratic lane, rather than a fluke.
Democrats Narrow Their Field While GOP Coalesces
On the Democratic side, voters appear to be consolidating around Becerra and Steyer after Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the race in April following allegations that also prompted his resignation from Congress, as reported by the Associated Press. Poll tracking and local coverage indicate that his departure has tightened the Democratic contest, while Republicans are increasingly rallying behind Hilton, whose support looks more solid and who has drawn national backing, according to the Los Angeles Times. In other words, the GOP is moving toward a single standard-bearer while Democrats are still sorting out their pecking order.
Ballots, Vote Centers And The Calendar
The California Secretary of State's election calendar shows that county elections offices began mailing ballots in early May and that vote centers in Voter's Choice Act counties start opening for early in-person voting on May 23, with Election Day set for June 2, per the Secretary of State. That leaves campaigns with a tight runway to identify their voters, push turnout and persuade anyone still waffling before those ballots come back in.
Why The Undecideds Still Matter
Roughly 12 percent of likely primary voters told Emerson College Polling they remain undecided, a bloc big enough to scramble the field in a race this tight. Pollsters note that late deciders often break in the direction of perceived momentum, which is exactly the kind of late tilt that could decide which two contenders emerge under California's top-two primary system. With Hilton's supporters described as the most steadfast, some Democratic strategists worry that continued splintering on their side could produce a surprise November lineup unless the party consolidates or drives up turnout fast.
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