San Francisco's condominium market posted a 23% year-over-year increase in median prices in September, with 66% of units selling above their asking price. The surge comes as a full-floor condominium on the 22nd floor of a Nob Hill high-rise hits the market asking $5 million, offering a striking snapshot of how far the city's once-battered condo sector has climbed back.
According to a Compass market report, San Francisco condo median prices rose 23% year over year in September, while the share of condos selling above list price jumped 27 percentage points to 66%. That single month of data builds on an already notable August, when condo sales climbed 11% year over year to 214 and the median price rose 22% to $1.23 million, according to a report from julietsailaw.com. Active condo listings, meanwhile, fell 36% that same month, tightening a market that had spent years struggling to find its footing.
A Long-Awaited Turnaround
The city's condo market has been described as sustaining an upward trend after six years of declines, with condo pricing up 3% for the year and transaction volume up 14%, per The San Francisco Standard. Earlier in the year, the condo rebound was also being framed as a major comeback. San Francisco was, in fact, the only county in the region where condos showed both meaningful price growth and closed-transaction growth as of August, the julietsailaw.com report notes.
Part of the explanation tracks back to the city's broader cost-of-living pressures and its tech-driven labor market. Rising rents and an influx of workers tied to artificial intelligence companies have pushed more people to buy condos rather than continue renting in San Francisco, according to a report from the San Francisco Business Times. That dynamic has added fuel to a recovery that was already gathering steam after years of pandemic-era softness in the condo segment.
Not Every Corner of the Bay Is Cashing In
The rebound isn't uniform even within the region. Across the Bay Area, condo price reductions increased in 12 counties while condo days on market rose in six, per the same julietsailaw.com report, and it's too early to tell whether that slowdown elsewhere reflects new lending regulations or simply the normal late-summer seasonal pattern. San Francisco's single-family market is running even hotter than its condo counterpart: 92% of single-family home sales closed above asking price in September, according to WRE News, which also reported a 14.9% year-over-year jump in the city's median sale price over the three months ending in September, citing Redfin data. Back in May, single-family homes were selling for about 25% over asking on average, up from roughly 10% over asking the year before, the Standard reported.
Nowhere is the city's appetite for premium condo space more visible than at 10 Miller Place, where a full-floor unit on the 22nd story is listed for $5 million. The San Francisco Business Times has also covered broader condo-market trends. The Standard reported the listing at $5 million, with three bedrooms, three bathrooms and 2,400 square feet of living space across the second-highest floor in the 42-unit building, which dates to 1963. The current owners bought the unit for $4.5 million in 2022, and the penthouse one flight up last sold for $4.75 million in 2023, according to the Standard's reporting.
A Nob Hill Listing Puts the Boom in Context
The Business Journals' reporting on the broader market points to three-bedroom condos seeing dramatic price increases while smaller units remain comparatively stagnant, a dynamic that would help explain why a spacious, view-heavy listing like the Nob Hill unit is drawing attention even as the overall median climbs.
For now, the numbers suggest San Francisco's condo market has shaken off much of the malaise that defined it for years, even if the recovery isn't landing evenly across every price point or property type. Buyers chasing larger, amenity-rich units are competing hard, while the rest of the market works through tighter inventory and a still-uncertain path for smaller listings.
